606
FXUS62 KRAH 140712
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
211 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES SINCE PRIOR FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TURNING BREEZY AND COLDER
OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
2) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, SOME
MODERATING FRIDAY. DRY.
3) PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF, TRACE AMOUNT OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW
ALONG THE VA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND.
4) COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN SAT NIGHT-TUE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP IT MILD TODAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE MILD AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. QPF WILL BE SO LIGHT - MOST LIKELY LESS THAN 0.1 TODAY, TRACE
AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF SHOWER WITH THE FROPA, BUT IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. THE
CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT, BUT ONLY IN A NARROW WIDOW OF OPPORTUNITY JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MID 20S TO MID
30S NW TO SE. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S AT THE BUS STOP THURSDAY AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH
CONTINUED CAA. ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE COLD AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY 25-35 PERCENT AT THE
MINIMUMS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM FREEZING NW INTO THE LOWER 40S SE. WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS/20S THROUGH THE DAY.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH DIMINISHING WIND
AS THE HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3: PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF, TRACE AMOUNT OF RAIN
AND/OR SNOW ALONG THE VA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THE FORECAST SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SAT AND SUN, THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW, MAINLY ALONG
THE VA BORDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER,
TIMING OF THE S/W REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS IS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND OR ACCUMULATE.
REGARDLESS, EXPECT TRACE-LIGHT AMOUNTS AT BEST, WITH LITTLE TO NO
OVERALL IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4: BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SAT
NIGHT-TUE.
THE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN SAT
NIGHT/SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL SOME MODEL VARIABILITY WRT TIMING THE ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE OF THE
COLD AIR (THERE WILL BE TWO SEPARATE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT COULD IMPACT
THE AREA BETWEEN SAT AND TUE NIGHT), RESULTING IN A WIDE SPREAD IN
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOW-END LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, PRIMARILY THROUGH 09Z THIS
MORNING.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z THU, GENERALLY VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
FEW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z/15TH, MOVING NW TO SE.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOTHING REALLY SIGNIFICANT. WINDS
UP TO 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THU,
FRI, AND AGAIN SAT, WITH LLWS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/10
AVIATION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
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