454
FXUS62 KRAH 140859
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
359 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A CYCLONE FORMING AT SOME DISTANCE
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT STILL PLENTY OF DIVERGENCE IN GUIDANCE SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TURNING BREEZY AND COLDER
OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
2) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, SOME
MODERATING FRIDAY. DRY.
3) THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY SO TOO SOON
TO GET INTO ANY DETAILS AT THIS TIME, BUT IT WARRANTS WATCHING.
4) BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THE TIMING OF THE COLDEST AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MILD WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TURNING BREEZY AND
COLDER OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CHANCE. NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL KEEP IT MILD
TODAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE MILD AIR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. QPF WILL BE SO
LIGHT - MOST LIKELY LESS THAN 0.1 TODAY, TRACE AMOUNTS TONIGHT.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF SHOWER WITH THE FROPA, BUT IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. THE
CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT, BUT ONLY IN A NARROW WIDOW OF OPPORTUNITY JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
50S. TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MID 20S TO MID
30S NW TO SE. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S AT THE BUS STOP THURSDAY AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
SOME MODERATING FRIDAY. DRY.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED CAA. ADVERSE
FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE COLD AND THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY 25-35 PERCENT AT THE MINIMUMS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM FREEZING NW INTO THE LOWER 40S SE. WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS/20S THROUGH THE DAY.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH DIMINISHING WIND
AS THE HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
SO TOO SOON TO GET INTO ANY DETAILS AT THIS TIME, BUT IT WARRANTS
WATCHING.
WITHIN BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US, A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THE PREFRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL NC. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
RAIN, MAINLY NORTH, BUT POPS ARE ONLY SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT
A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US AND
CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY, WITH A SURFACE CYCLONE THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES NE. WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BY THIS POINT (AND SUNDAY'S SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
THE 30S AT LEAST BASED ON THE LATEST RAW GUIDANCE), ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS OVER CENTRAL NC IS LIKELY TO BE SNOW, BUT
THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION (IF ANY) WE ACTUALLY RECEIVE.
THE GFS IS SHARPER WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF,
RESULTING IN SNOW ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE FOCUSED IN THE EAST. REGARDLESS, CONSIDERING
NEARLY HALF OF ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND OVER HALF OF GFS ENSEMBLES DEPICT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, IT BEARS WATCHING. WPC QPF IS
LIGHT AT THIS TIME BUT COULD INCREASE IF MODELS CONVERGE ON A
SURFACE LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4: BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT THE TIMING OF THE COLDEST AIR
EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THE TIMING OF THE
COLDEST AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE 00Z GFS BRINGS THE ARCTIC HIGH
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DOESN'T BRING IT
THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOW-END LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, PRIMARILY THROUGH 09Z THIS
MORNING.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z THU, GENERALLY VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
FEW MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z/15TH, MOVING NW TO SE.
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE NW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOTHING REALLY SIGNIFICANT. WINDS
UP TO 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THU,
FRI, AND AGAIN SAT, WITH LLWS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/DANCO
AVIATION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
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