413
FXUS62 KRAH 150030
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN A CHANCE OF A
FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NE OVERNIGHT. TURNING MUCH
COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO 20S BY THU MORNING.
2) BELOW FREEZING WIND CHILLS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
3) A CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. AS WAS STATED ON THE LAST SHIFT, THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY SO IT IS TOO SOON TO GET INTO DETAILS.
4) SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL, THE REST OF THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN
A CHANCE OF A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR NE OVERNIGHT.
TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO 20S BY THU
MORNING.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT PRESENTLY DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, ROUGHLY BETWEEN 12 AM AND 5 AM THU. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME
MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT, TRIANGLE,
SANDHILLS, FAYETTEVILLE, AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NC. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN MOST PLACES WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, THOUGH
THE 12Z HREF SUGGESTS A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS COULD SEE UP TO TWO
TENTHS OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN, ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL TURN
MUCH COLDER FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY REACH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POST-FRONTAL, WITH WIND
CHILLS BY THU MORNING IN THE TEENS TO 20S.
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, THERE WILL BE A VERY NARROW WINDOW
OF SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE
TRIANGLE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, ROUGHLY FROM ROCKY MOUNT
TO ROANOKE RAPIDS TO SCOTLAND NECK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MAYBE A
1-2 HR WINDOW OF THIS CHANGEOVER, BUT THIS SCENARIO TYPICALLY DOES
NOT FAVOR A GOOD CHANCE GIVEN COLD AIR CHASING THE EXITING MOISTURE.
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, AS THE HREF 90TH PERCENTILE SHOWS LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BELOW FREEZING WIND CHILLS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST THURS MORNING
AS A POTENT MID/UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND STRONG/DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING, POST-FRONTAL REGIME TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS THURS. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/DRYING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD HELP RAISE TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND SUBSEQUENTLY
DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30%
OVERLAPPING SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30
MPH; INFREQUENT GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE IN UNSHELTERED
LOCATIONS, BASED ON THE 12Z GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. ADVERSE FIRE
BEHAVIOR APPEARS POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD BE GREATLY LIMITED BY THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.
WIND CHILLS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING ON THURS, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF NC-64, WITH THE GUSTY WINDS COUPLED WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY
WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM. WINDS BECOMING CALM AND ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD SUPPORT A SHORT PERIOD OF OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 AREAWIDE, AND
WIND CHILLS REACHING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BY FRI MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. AS WAS STATED ON THE LAST SHIFT, THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY SO IT IS TOO SOON TO GET INTO DETAILS.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. THERE WILL BE
MINIMAL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT, AND THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TOTALS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A
COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SIGNAL THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME SNOWFALL, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL WIDE
VARIATIONS IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND HOW FAR WEST
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL, THE REST OF THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, BUT AFTER TODAY,
SATURDAY IS THE ONLY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S. A
MAJORITY OF DAYS HAVE HIGHS IN THE 40S, AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. AS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES, FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WARMEST NIGHT OUT OF THE NEXT
SEVEN WITH HIGHS AROUND FREEZING, WHILE SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS NEXT WEEK ALL SHOW WIDESPREAD LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES OR
SLIGHTLY COLDER.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC, BUT A PERIOD OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
MAINLY 01-05Z AT INT/GSO, 03Z-07Z AT RDU, AND 04Z-08Z AT RWI/FAY,
ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS MVFR CLOUD
DECK POTENTIAL, BKN-OVC VFR MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE
OUT OF THE WNW AND NW, LASTING THROUGH THU. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-
18 KTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 22-30 KTS, STRONGEST FROM
MID MORNING THU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH FAIR SKIES THU, ALTHOUGH SCT-BKN CLOUDS BASED AT 5K-
7K FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z FRI, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT,
ALTHOUGH WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, AND WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRI AND SAT, ALTHOUGH NOT
AS BLUSTERY AS ON THU. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A RISK OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/SWIGGETT/GREEN
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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