868
FXUS62 KRAH 151312
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 800 AM THURSDAY...
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS AND AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL NC TODAY TILL 7 PM EST.
2) COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 30 MPH AND
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
3) CONTINUED COLD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS BETWEEN 15
AND AROUND 20. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
4) AFTER ONE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE NORTH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
5) BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL NC TODAY TILL 7 PM EST.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERAURES ARE COLDER TODAY, THE COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT, ONGOING DRY FUELS,
AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH, WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER MAY ALSO BE WARRANTED FRIDAY
WITH CONTINUED VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SOME MARGINAL GUSTY
WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS WILL GUST
TO 20 TO 30 MPH AND RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S FOR MOST
OF THE DAY.
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS ADVANCING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 1 AT 2AM. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH I-
95 BY 5AM AND REACH THE COAST JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALLING. MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE PIEDMONT WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES PERSIST IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN PLAIN FALLING INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE TRIAD, TO THE UPPER
30S IN THE TRIANGLE AND THE LOWER 40S IN THE SANDHILLS. THESE HIGHS
ARE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THE COMBINATION OF THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE
WIND CHILL POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AT TIMES ACROSS THE
TRIAD AND NEAR THE VA BORDER.
IN ADDITION, AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION IT WILL BE ENHANCED
BY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND GOOD MIXING RESULTING INTO DEWPOINTS
DROPPING TO BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES
RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE 20-30% RANGE. WHILE THE LOW RH VALUES AND
GUSTY WINDS RAISE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN, PREVAILING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONTINUED COLD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS
BETWEEN 15 AND AROUND 20. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES RANGING IN THE 1270S.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. THERE IS A
CHANCE WINDS COULD DECOUPLE AROUND DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY ALLOWING LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE MID AND EVEN LOWER TEENS AS NOTED BY THE NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE.
IT WILL REMAIN CHILLY ON FRIDAY BUT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE. SUNSHINE WILL BE MUTED BY SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHICH IS ABOUT 4 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
AFTER ONE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY, BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
WITHIN BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
US, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THE
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL NC. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH, POPS REMAIN
ONLY SLIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM LOWER-50S TO LOWER-
60S.
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US AND CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY, THEN NE AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, INDUCING A SURFACE
CYCLONE THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES NE.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC,
BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH CONTINUOUSLY
DRIVING DOWN COLD AIR, DESPITE A COLD AIR MASS BEING IN PLACE
INITIALLY. GIVEN THIS AND THE LOW TAKING A MILLER A TRACK VS MILLER
B, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ICE AND IT IS
MORE A QUESTION OF RAIN VS SNOW. FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIVER OF MUCH OF THE QPF, AND GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW THIS FAR OUT, THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND
WHERE. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SHARPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW THAT HUGS THE COAST COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH HAS THE
CYCLONE MORE OFFSHORE. THUS THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE
ECMWF, WHICH KEEPS THE HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR EAST, BUT THE GFS IS ALSO
WARMER. THIS ILLUSTRATES THE DILEMMA WITHOUT A CONTINUOUS COLD AIR
SOURCE, AS THE STORM ESSENTIALLY HAS TO "THREAD THE NEEDLE" FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. TOO FAR WEST AND IT WOULD BE A
MAINLY RAIN EVENT, TOO FAR EAST AND WE WON'T GET ANY PRECIPITATION
AT ALL. IF IT DOES TAKE A CLOSE TO PERFECT TRACK, GUIDANCE SHOWS UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO
PREDICT AMOUNTS WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. ALL THAT CAN BE SAID IS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA APPEARS LIKELY. THE
OTHER FACTOR TO KEEP IN MIND IS IT WILL BE DAYTIME AND IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-30S, SNOW WOULD HAVE A HARD
TIME STICKING IF RATES AREN'T HIGH ENOUGH. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 5...
BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES AS THEY
WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE, LOWS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE FROM MID-TEENS TO LOWER-20S, WITH WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE ONLY IN
THE 30S AND 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT COULD BE IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
* NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND SANDHILLS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK TODAY WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NC THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE WITH GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS OF 22 TO 28
KTS FOR A HANDFUL OF HOURS INTO THE EARLY/MID MORNING THEN RELAX
SLIGHTLY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ARRIVES. WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BETWEEN 02 AND
06Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO WEST AND EVEN
SOUTHWESTERLY BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY AT AROUND 5 KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM 4 TO 8KFT EARLY THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST DURING THE DAY. SOME SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
MORNING BRINGING A SMALL THREAT OF SOME SPOTTY RAIN AND MARGINAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM
MAY BRING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW.
BLAES.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/DANCO/BLAES
AVIATION...BLAES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page