479
FXUS62 KRAH 151804
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE
POSSIBLE, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO AROUND 20 BY FRI MORNING.
2) MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
3) AFTER ONE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY, BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO AROUND 20 BY FRI MORNING.
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING. GUSTS FROM THE WNW WILL CONTINUE TO REACH VALUES OF 25
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BY LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT, WE SHOULD START TO SEE A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE WIND GUSTS, BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RECOVERING TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING,
THAT PARENT HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD NORTHERN FL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THAT ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR ME SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD,
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20,
WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR THE MID TEENS IN OUTLYING AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
VERY DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
WITHIN THE MODIFYING ARCTIC AIRMASS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL MIX DOWN
DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AFTER NOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE SUSTAINED WINDS TO 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 15-
25 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM 17Z
UNTIL 22Z, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. ANY
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY NCFS ASSESSMENT OF SOIL
CONDITIONS AND THEIR EXPECTED STRESS ON FIRE SUPPRESSION PERSONNEL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER ONE MILD DAY ON SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY, BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
WITHIN BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
US, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS THE
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL NC. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH, POPS REMAIN
ONLY SLIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM LOWER-50S TO LOWER-
60S.
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US AND CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY, THEN NE AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, INDUCING A SURFACE
CYCLONE THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MOVES NE.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC,
BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH CONTINUOUSLY
DRIVING DOWN COLD AIR, DESPITE A COLD AIR MASS BEING IN PLACE
INITIALLY. GIVEN THIS AND THE LOW TAKING A MILLER A TRACK VS MILLER
B, THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ICE AND IT IS
MORE A QUESTION OF RAIN VS SNOW. FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIVER OF MUCH OF THE QPF, AND GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW THIS FAR OUT, THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND
WHERE. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SHARPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW THAT HUGS THE COAST COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH HAS THE
CYCLONE MORE OFFSHORE. THUS THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE
ECMWF, WHICH KEEPS THE HEAVIEST QPF TO OUR EAST, BUT THE GFS IS ALSO
WARMER. THIS ILLUSTRATES THE DILEMMA WITHOUT A CONTINUOUS COLD AIR
SOURCE, AS THE STORM ESSENTIALLY HAS TO "THREAD THE NEEDLE" FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. TOO FAR WEST AND IT WOULD BE A
MAINLY RAIN EVENT, TOO FAR EAST AND WE WON'T GET ANY PRECIPITATION
AT ALL. IF IT DOES TAKE A CLOSE TO PERFECT TRACK, GUIDANCE SHOWS UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO
PREDICT AMOUNTS WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. ALL THAT CAN BE SAID IS
ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA APPEARS LIKELY. THE
OTHER FACTOR TO KEEP IN MIND IS IT WILL BE DAYTIME AND IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-30S, SNOW WOULD HAVE A HARD
TIME STICKING IF RATES AREN'T HIGH ENOUGH. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL CLEAR ON SUNDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF
PERIOD. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 TO 28 KT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BY LATE TONIGHT AND
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE SE COAST FRI AFTERNOON, FAVORING A RETURN SW FLOW, WHICH COULD
GUST IN THE 20 TO 24 KT RANGE.
OUTLOOK: A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR EARLY
SAT, MAINLY ACROSS THE GSO/INT TERMINALS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE ON
IMPACTS AND RESULTANT AVIATION CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY LOW AT THE
MOMENT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MON THROUGH TUE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANCO/SWIGGETT/KREN
AVIATION...KREN
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