274
FXUS62 KRAH 160623
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
123 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE
POSSIBLE, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO AROUND 20 BY FRI MORNING.
2) MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST
US COAST, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO AROUND 20 BY FRI
MORNING.
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING. GUSTS FROM THE WNW WILL CONTINUE TO REACH VALUES OF 25
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BY LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT, WE SHOULD START TO SEE A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE WIND GUSTS, BECOMING LIGHT TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RECOVERING TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING,
THAT PARENT HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD NORTHERN FL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THAT ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR ME SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD,
SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20,
WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS NEAR THE MID TEENS IN OUTLYING AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
VERY DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
WITHIN THE MODIFYING ARCTIC AIRMASS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL MIX DOWN
DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AFTER NOON AND PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE SUSTAINED WINDS TO 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS 15-
25 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM 17Z
UNTIL 22Z, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. ANY
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY NCFS ASSESSMENT OF SOIL
CONDITIONS AND THEIR EXPECTED STRESS ON FIRE SUPPRESSION PERSONNEL.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AND/OR RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON SUNDAY, BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A MINIMAL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. HOWEVER, AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES, AND THIS WILL
HELP TO FORM A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER IT HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE. THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAIN PIECES TO THE FORECAST. ONE
IS THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 50S IN CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON SATURDAY, AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
THE MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA INSTEAD OF NORTH, WHICH IS NOT A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED LOCATION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOW MUCH OF A TIME
PERIOD WILL THERE BE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW? A SECOND UNCERTAIN PIECE IS WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL FORM
OFF THE COAST. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING MUCH
CLOSER TO CAPE HATTERAS THAN THE 12Z GFS, WITH THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN
FARTHER OFFSHORE. A THIRD UNCERTAIN PIECE IS HOW MUCH PHASING WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINING INLAND. WILL THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE TWO
FEATURES REMAIN CONTINUOUS OR WILL THERE BE A GAP BETWEEN THEM? IT'S
JUST TOO EARLY TO KNOW WITH CERTAINTY HOW ALL OF THESE PIECES WILL
CONTINUE TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, THE FORECAST HAS AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN ALL LOCATIONS, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
OCCUR.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM FRIDAY...
CONTINENTAL POLAR (VERY DRY) HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS IN CNTL NC THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS AND
OFFSHORE THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES. SSWLY FLOW, AND SURFACE WINDS
AROUND IT, WILL STRENGTHEN AND GUST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 KTS, BEFORE LESSENING AT SUNSET. AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND OVERSPREAD THE SRN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO SAT, DURING WHICH TIME LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND/OR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BECOME LIKELY.
OUTLOOK: A BAND OF RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD
PARTICULARLY THE PIEDMONT OF NC SAT MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GUSTY SWLY BREEZE OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE DAY SAT. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SOME
SNOW OVER THE PIEDMONT, WILL OVERSPREAD CNTL NC LATE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN, WHEN ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY AREA-
WIDE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/SWIGGETT/KREN
AVIATION...MWS
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