354
FXUS62 KRAH 161105
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
605 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
REFINED SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST WHICH NOTES A COATING TO HALF
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS
FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
1) UNSEASONABLY COLD THIS MORNING, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
TEENS AND TEMPERATURES NOT MUCH HIGHER
2) INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS
3) A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND LIKELY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION INCLUDING RAIN AND SNOW WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES 1 AND 2...
VERY STRONGLY RISING HEIGHTS FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 25 DAM AT 500
MB, AND RELATED DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING, WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THEY WILL
DO SO BETWEEN A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PIVOTING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND THE WRN ATLANTIC AND A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM ONES THAT WILL
PIVOT THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH THROUGH MID MS VALLEYS.
AT THE SURFACE, ~1019 MB CP HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER THE NRN
GULF --AND WITH RELATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR TEENS F AS FAR
SOUTH AS N-CNTL FL AND SINGLE DIGITS ONES OVER CNTL NC-- WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. THE MSL
PRESSURE (AND LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT) GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH, AND A NOW
~995 MB CYCLONE THAT WILL WEAKEN/FILL WHILE PROGRESSING FROM WRN ON
TO THE GREAT LAKES, WILL CAUSE SSWLY FLOW TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THAT
STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL MANIFEST AS 8-12 KT SURFACE WINDS THAT WILL
GUST THROUGH THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS OVER CNTL NC THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE MARGINALLY STRONG, AND AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SSWLY
WINDS, WILL COMBINE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED VERY LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THAT WILL YIELD MIN RH AROUND 20 PERCENT, WITH DIURNAL,
DIABATIC WARMING INTO 40S. THOSE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, THOUGH
RELATIVELY UNIFORM THROUGHOUT CNTL NC, WILL CREATE ANOTHER DAY OF
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT MAY BE GREATEST OVER THE WRN HALF OF CNTL
NC PER COORDINATION WITH NCFS, WHERE THEY INDICATED FUELS WERE MOST
CRITICAL (IN DISTRICTS 3, 10, 11, AND 12).
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND
LIKELY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION INCLUDING RAIN AND SNOW
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW.
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SWING EAST AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. VARIOUS SETS OF NWP GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT THIS FEATURE
BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE TROUGH
CONFIGURATION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT THAT WILL GENERATE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS AL/GA/SC ON SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN EXPANDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS THE SHIELD
TRANSLATES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 0.05 INCHES IN THE
TRIAD, 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT, AND
0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT DETAILS INCLUDING
THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE EXTENT OF
THE AVAILABLE COLD AIR ARE HANDLED DIFFERENTLY AND RESULT IN
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND HOW MUCH, AND WHERE IT
WILL ACCUMULATE.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOTES THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED AND COLD ENOUGH TO BECOME GLACIATED AND
GENERATE SNOW. A KEY DIFFERENCE LIES IN HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE. A PROVEN OLD RULE FOR WINTER WEATHER/SNOW
FORECASTING IS TO FORECAST THE COLD FIRST. THE COLD AIR HIGH FOR
THIS EVENT WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX, NO WHERE NEAR THE FAVORED GREAT
LAKES/NY LOCATION FOR NC WHICH RAISES DOUBTS ABOUT THE
AVAILABILITY OF SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND DRY AIR FOR SNOW. A KEY
ITEM TO MONITOR IS HOW MILD TEMPERATURES GET ON SATURDAY. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE 50S LESS THAN 24 HOURS BEFORE A
POTENTIAL NC SNOW EVENT IS ANOTHER CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
AS CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY EVENING
SHOULD RETARD A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS PRECIPITATION
BREAKS OUT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT AS THIS EVENTS DRAWS CLOSER,
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CAPTURE IT AND THE NAM, WHICH
OFTEN HANDLES THE THERMAL PROFILE WELL, NOTES THAT THE STABLE
COLD AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE SLOW TO
WARM ON SATURDAY WHICH WOULD DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING
NEEDED FOR SNOW ON SUNDAY.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH THIS EVENT IS FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NC LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN EXPAND
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH A SHARP EDGE/CUT OFF TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AS THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS AND THEN SLOWLY COOL AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MELTING SNOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS THE SURFACE. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF COLDER IN THE
TRIAD, THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH WET SNOW WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK, PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE FALLING ACROSS
THE TRIAD WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE EAST WHICH COULD MIX
WITH A LITTLE WET SNOW NEAR THE VA BORDER AND I-85 REGION.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL DURING THE DAY AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS
DIABATIC COOLING FROM MELTING SNOW. THIS WILL FAVOR AN EASTWARD
TRANSITION TO A SNOW AND RAIN MIX DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUAL
TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STILL HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HOW EFFICIENT THE COOLING PROCESS WILL BE
BUT WE'RE PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF CONVERSATIONAL SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOUT FREEZING. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO A COATING UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION, WITH THESE ACCUMULATION FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND IN AN ARC NEAR AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST NOTABLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE MUCH LESS ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE COLD AIR WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME ARRIVING IN TIME AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL JUST
BE RAIN. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT IF THE COLDER AIR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
OR IF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OR RATES ARE GREATER, THEN ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS COULD BE MORE IMPACTFUL AND RANGE CLOSER TO AN INCH.
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW FREEZING BY DINNER TIME SUNDAY AND
THEN CRASH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
REFREEZING AND ICY PATCHES ON ROADWAYS SUNDAY NIGHT. -BLAES
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 605 AM FRIDAY...
CONTINENTAL POLAR (VERY DRY) HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS IN CNTL NC THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD,
AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES. SSWLY
FLOW, AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND IT, WILL STRENGTHEN AND GUST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 KTS, BEFORE LESSENING AT
SUNSET. AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND OVERSPREAD THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
TONIGHT INTO SAT, DURING WHICH TIME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND/OR
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BECOME LIKELY. A BAND OF RAIN AND MVFR
CEILINGS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD PARTICULARLY THE WRN PIEDMONT OF NC
SAT MORNING.
OUTLOOK: LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
SAT, AFTER WHICH TIME A GUSTY AND MILDER SWLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
FOR SAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SOME
SNOW OVER THE PIEDMONT, WILL OVERSPREAD CNTL NC LATE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN, WHEN ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY AREA-
WIDE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAES/MWS
AVIATION...MWS
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