953
FXUS62 KRAH 170004
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED, SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY, DECREASING THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. HUMIDITY
IMPROVES SAT AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS A LOW-END RAIN
CHANCE SAT MORNING.
2) AFTER SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO
SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE SUNDAY. WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE, THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST (AS OPPOSED TO FARTHER OUT TO SEA) TO CONTRIBUTE
TO A WIDER PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT COVERS A MAJORITY OF NORTH
CAROLINA. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
3) COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS -- 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL -- FOR CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. HUMIDITY
IMPROVES SAT AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS A LOW-END RAIN
CHANCE SAT MORNING.
THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, ROUGHLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE AND POINTS WEST INTO THE TRIAD AND WESTERN PIEDMONT, WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. BY TONIGHT, WE SHOULD
SEE HUMIDITY VALUES IMPROVE INTO THE 30S AND EVENTUAL 40S OVER THE
PIEDMONT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL IMPROVE FURTHER ON SAT AS THE HIGH ALONG THE SE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, RESULTING IN A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE
DAY SAT. AND DESPITE SOME GUSTINESS DEVELOPING, THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
FIRE DANGER AT A MINIMUM. INCREASING WAA WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT SAT MORNING AND PROVIDE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO FAVOR SOME LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS THE TRIAD REGION.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK VERY MINIMAL, AS THE HREF/REFS 90TH PERCENTILE
SHOWS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ANY RAIN WOULD TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO
SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE SUNDAY. WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE, THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE SURFACE LOW WHICH DEVELOPS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST (AS OPPOSED TO FARTHER OUT TO SEA) TO CONTRIBUTE
TO A WIDER PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT COVERS A MAJORITY OF NORTH
CAROLINA. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WITH ENOUGH SATURATED TO GENERATE
SNOW ALOFT. WHAT HAS HAD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AS A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SNOWFALL FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SOURCE FOR COLD
AIR IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SNOWSTORMS IS TO THE NORTH OVER NEW
YORK OR THE GREAT LAKES, BUT IN THIS SCENARIO, HIGH PRESSURE IS ALL
THE WAY IN SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE WIND WILL TAKE ON A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, THE
FORECAST FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT HAS CONTINUED TO CREEP
UPWARD SLIGHTLY, WITH ALL LOCATIONS FORECAST IN THE 30S. EVEN IF
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO RISE ON SUNDAY, THE NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ON SUNDAY HAS ALSO INCREASED BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES, RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. EVEN IF SNOW IS FALLING, UNLESS THE
RATES ARE VERY HIGH, IT WILL BE HARD FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON
SURFACES THAT HAVE ONLY BEEN BELOW FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST IS AROUND AN INCH,
LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY FALL AS
RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN LATE
OVERNIGHT TO THE WEST OF US-1. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE WEST OF US-1, ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN IS LIKELY EAST OF I-95, WITH A CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF I-95. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN/SNOW HANGING
AROUND HALIFAX OR EDGECOMBE COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING, BUT ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE TRIAD (AS LOW
AS 0.05 INCHES) AND THE HIGHEST ACROSS SAMPSON COUNTY (UP TO HALF AN
INCH). SKIES SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THAT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE ANYWHERE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S.
ANY RAIN OR SNOW THAT FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE LIKELY
TO FREEZE ON ROADWAYS SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS -- 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL -- FOR CONSECUTIVE MORNINGS.
MINOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON MON BEHIND THE COLD FROPA
FROM SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BRING
COLD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL EMERGE FROM
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN ON MON AND SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS
BY WED MORNING. WED MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST FOR MOST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUES WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE 30S. NEXT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL EJECTING WAVES OF ENERGY MID-LATE WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/INTENSITY IS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY
EFFECTING THE INT/GSO TERMINALS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THEY COULD
REACH AS FAR EAST AS KRDU. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MAY ALSO SWING
ACROSS THE NW SITES BETWEEN 5 AND 10AM. ON TOP OF ALL THAT, A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL
RESULT IN LLWS. AS IT PASSES EXPECT GUSTY WINDS 20-25MPH TO CONTINUE
AS VFR CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY AFTERNOON, AND DIMINISHING AROUND
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SOME SNOW OVER THE
PIEDMONT, WILL OVERSPREAD CNTL NC LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN, WHEN
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY AREA-WIDE. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL MON-WED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/SWIGGETT/KREN
AVIATION...CA/MWS
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