813
FXUS62 KRAH 011955
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 131 PM SUNDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY MORNING.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9
AM MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 252 PM SUNDAY...
1) BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNDER FRESH SNOW COVER. ICY
DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
2) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
3) A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK
FAIRLY LIGHT. A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT THE END OF THE EVENT
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS LOW AND
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 252 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNDER FRESH SNOW
COVER. ICY DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A 1034 SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER
LA/MS, EXTENDING NWLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC. 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND THE OFFSHORE LOW SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN MIXED A BIT, SO CAN'T RULE OUT A BIT OF WIND, BUT
OVERALL WIND MAGNITUDES SHOULD BE FAR LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT/EARLIER
TODAY. WHILE WINDS WILL LESSEN, THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN COMBINATION
WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES (SOME
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).
AS SUCH, WIND CHILLS WILL STILL DROP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO
NEAR 0 TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM
MONDAY.
GIVEN MANY ROADS WILL LIKELY HAVE LINGERING SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC, IN ADDITION TO MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW TODAY,
BLACK ICE AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THE REST OF
TODAY THROUGH MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
NWLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW KEEPS CONDITIONS COLD
MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-
ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS, AND REMNANTS OF LINGERING
SNOWPACK, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE COLD IN THE MID
TEENS, HOWEVER CALM WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL TUESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR MAY BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND OUR NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A COUPLE OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT THE END OF
THE EVENT CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING IS
LOW AND IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NC FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK LOW WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION ALONG A COLD
FRONT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW THAT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF US ON
WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT, AROUND A TENTH
TO QUARTER INCH, AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH
FOR MANY LIQUID, THOUGH A FEW FLAKES CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THE ONSET
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THE GFS AND CMC THEN TRY TO GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SECOND DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE SE. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF AND
MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLES GIVE US VERY LITTLE. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT
THE END CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF THE GFS AND CMC VERIFY AS CAA TAKES
OVER BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THIS IS A CASE OF COLD AIR "CHASING" THE
PRECIPITATION, WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN VERY LIMITED SNOWFALL IF
ANY ACROSS OUR AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 133 PM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE GUSTS SUBSIDE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RELAX TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MIXED OR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 1:
KGSO: 27/1971
KRDU: 28/1900
KFAY: 32/1981
FEBRUARY 2:
KGSO: 30/1951
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 2:
KGSO: 6/1971
KRDU: 5/1971
KFAY: 15/1971
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/DANCO
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/BLAES
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