236
FXUS62 KRAH 022007
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
306 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 254 PM MONDAY...
SPS ISSUED FOR SLICK ROADS VIA BLACK ICE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 254 PM MONDAY...
1) BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNDER LINGERING SNOW COVER. ICY
DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
2) MODERATING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, FOLLOWED BY
PERIODS OF COLD THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
3) A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED, A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT THE END OF THE EVENT CAN'T
BE RULED OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
LIGHT AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 254 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNDER LINGERING
SNOW COVER. ICY DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TOMORROW. AS THE HIGH NUDGES NORTHWARD, LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD
RISE SOME OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. RANGING FROM 1290-1295
TONIGHT, THESE THICKNESSES WOULD TRADITIONALLY SUPPORT LOWS AROUND
20 OR SO. HOWEVER, GIVEN GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO THE LINGERING SNOW PACK, EXPECTING
TEMPS TO DROP MORE-SO INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. GIVEN THE CALM
WINDS, HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS DO NOT DROP INTO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL MELTING
FROM TODAY'S SLIGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD SUN, BLACK ICE WILL
AGAIN BE A CONCERN TONIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MODERATING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF COLD THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SLY RETURN FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGE OF THE
EXITING SFC HIGH WILL PROMOTE WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL PROMOTE WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S.
OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY PUSH THROUGH SOME
NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL PUSH INTO THE 40S (NORTHERN AREAS MIGHT
HOVER IN THE UPPER 30S). BEHIND THE SYSTEM, EXPECT ANOTHER COLD
BLAST WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR THEN LOOKS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MAINLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED, A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT THE END OF THE EVENT
CAN'T BE RULED OUT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEK, AS A NORTHERN
STREAM MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, SPAWNING A SURFACE LOW AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW TO SE DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG
THE FRONT, SO POPS HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT, AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS GA/SC. THE
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE SE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE. A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT THE END CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH BY THIS POINT AND TEMPERATURES IN THE COLUMN
COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF
THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC HAVE GOTTEN WETTER, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MORE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCING MEASURABLE SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THIS IS A CASE OF COLD AIR "CHASING" THE
PRECIPITATION, WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN LIMITED SNOWFALL IF ANY
ACROSS OUR AREA. STILL CERTAINLY WORTH MONITORING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. SOME MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE TRIAD THIS EVENING. BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
NEAR SUB-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY AT KINT/KGSO/KRDU. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THIS TAF PACKAGE (THEY LOOK FLEETING
AT BEST WITH LOWEST CEILINGS MOSTLY PINNED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE MOUNTAINS). OTHERWISE EXPECT CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY AS OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANY PRECIPITATION
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL ~00Z.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 2:
KGSO: 6/1971
KFAY: 15/1971
FEBRUARY 3:
KFAY: 10/1917
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/DANCO
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
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