269
FXUS62 KRAH 031821
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
121 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 215 AM TUESDAY...
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN HAS INCREASED WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH THE
PROBABILITIES THAT THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 AM TUESDAY...
1) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH ICY DRIVING
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE 40S WILL AID IN MELTING PROCESS. TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUDINESS
TONIGHT MAY STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE 32.
2) RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS COLDER AIR
RUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE
PROBABILITIES OF A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END OF THE EVENT HAVE
INCREASED (ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT). PRECIPITATION WILL END BY
12Z OR SO THURSDAY.
3) WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AS A FEW ROUNDS OF ARCTIC AIR RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
ICY DRIVING CONDITIONS PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT MAY REMAIN ABOVE 32 IN MANY AREAS.
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ICY SECONDARY ROADS AND PATCHY
BLACK ICE ELSEWHERE CONTINUES THROUGH MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS AND 20S EARLY WILL WARM ABOVE 32 DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME IMPROVEMENT TO BEGIN AGAIN. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIMIT
DIRECT SUNSHINE FOR MELTING. HOWEVER, THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER THE VEIL OF CLOUDINESS. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED.
GOOD NEWS FOR TONIGHT, THE SW FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
SLOWLY INCREASING DEW POINTS (LOW LEVEL MOISTURE) WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 32 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL MELTING, EVEN AFTER DARK. OF COURSE, THE SNOW/ICE COVERED
GROUND IS VERY COLD, THUS THE MELTING WILL BE LIMITED THERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED WEDNESDAY. AND,
PROBABILITIES OF A CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION HAVE INCREASED.
THERE IS NOW A STRONGER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOWN BY MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS THAT WILL TRACK ENE ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST OF WEDNESDAY (AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT)WILL BE TOO WARM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE FOR SNOW,
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE WAVE
DEPICTED NOW IS A BIT STRONGER WITH MORE MOISTURE AND LIFT EXPECTED
AS IT TRACKS ENE ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (VA BORDER) THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A GOOD PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S NORTH TO SOUTH FOR HIGHS,
WITH AT LEAST HALF THE EXPECTED QPF TO BE RAIN. HOWEVER, AS THE
TRANSITION OCCURS, THERE ARE INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF A CHANGE TO
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT. IN THE AREAS AROUND FAY TO
CLINTON TO GSB, THERE MAY BE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX AS THE ENTIRE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE (A LINGERING MID LEVEL WARM NOSE AND SLOWER WET
BULBING BELOW 32 MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC THERE.
THE CURRENT SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES ARE DEPICTING A HIGHER POTENTIAL
OF UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW NORTH, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND
EAST DUE TO THE SLOWER COOLING OF THE ENTIRE COLUMN THERE UNTIL
CLOSE TO THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT. PROBABILITIES OF 3
INCHES OF SNOW ARE STILL LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. REGARDLESS, CHANCES
HAVE INCREASED IN AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CRASH
INTO THE 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, WE
WILL CARRY 1 INCH OR LESS IN ALL BUT THE SE.
IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR AT LEAST PART OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3)... VERY COLD, WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A FEW ROUNDS OF ARCTIC AIR RETURN
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT BY 12Z/THURSDAY, THE
PERIOD OF THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE. A FEW ROUNDS OF COLD, MOSTLY DRY AIR LOOK
TO MAKE THEIR WAY TO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THUS,
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MODERATE SOME AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. ALSO
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT LOOKS TO PASS TO OUR NORTH. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FRIDAY NIGHT, DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY, BEFORE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY AND AN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF RAIN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO, A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL
NC. ALSO THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/LBH
AVIATION...BSD/BADGETT
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