764
FXUS62 KRAH 031918
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
-SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINED LARGELY THE SAME, HOWEVER ICE AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED AS THE PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVE INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
1) RAIN STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX OR LIGHT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
2) SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... RAIN STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX OR LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW, WILL INCH EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TENNESSEE, THEN THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA, AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES, RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERMAL PROFILES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR
FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW AS MOISTURE EXITS
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, BUT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR—AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN—COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER AS EARLY
AS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS NORTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY.
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE, A SHALLOW WARM NOSE MAY
PERSIST, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE ENDING
AS LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LINGERING MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COAST.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERALL, WITH THE GREATEST
SNOW TOTALS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION ENDING. SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 INCH OR GREATER, OR IMPACTFUL ICE
ACCRETION, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION. FOR THE MOST PART THESE WAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH ABSENT OF
ANY PRECIP, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
WAVE ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER. MORE THAN ANYTHING, THESE WAVES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY (WHICH WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S), DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY, BEFORE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY AND AN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF RAIN AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO, A PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND A CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL
NC. ALSO THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DISCUSSION...CA/DL
AVIATION...BSD/BADGETT
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