033
FXUS62 KRAH 032330
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
-SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINED LARGELY THE SAME, HOWEVER ICE AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED AS THE PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA HAVE INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
1) RAIN STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX OR LIGHT SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
2) SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... RAIN STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX OR LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW, WILL INCH EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TENNESSEE, THEN THROUGH GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA, AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES, RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERMAL PROFILES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR
FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
PREDOMINANTLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW AS MOISTURE EXITS
THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, BUT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR—AND
POSSIBLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN—COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER AS EARLY
AS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS NORTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY.
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE, A SHALLOW WARM NOSE MAY
PERSIST, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE ENDING
AS LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LINGERING MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
COAST.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OVERALL, WITH THE GREATEST
SNOW TOTALS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
20S PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION ENDING. SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 INCH OR GREATER, OR IMPACTFUL ICE
ACCRETION, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION. FOR THE MOST PART THESE WAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH ABSENT OF
ANY PRECIP, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
WAVE ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER. MORE THAN ANYTHING, THESE WAVES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY (WHICH WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S), DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
BRIEFLY STALLS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ,
FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOCUSED MAINLY FROM RDU SOUTH AND EAST TO RWI AND FAY.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AND LIFR THROUGH THE DAY,
EXPANDING NORTHWEST TO GSO AND INT AS ADDITIONAL PRECIP BREAKS OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
ENDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND SHOULD
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DISCUSSION...CA/DL
AVIATION...BLS
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