761
FXUS62 KRAH 040759
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 600 PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 1000 AM THURSDAY FOR ALL BUT THE SW PIEDMONT.
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY CONFINED MAINLY ON THE NORTH SIDES OF THE
TRIAD TO THE TRIANGLE, AND LESS THAN 0.5 INCH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
ICE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY THE SAME, WITH CONCERNS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A VERY LIGHT GLAZE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT WHEN
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 32.
FLASH FREEZE MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE 20S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTS AT 600 PM TODAY.
1) RAIN WILL BE LIKELY, OFF AN ON TODAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX
WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
A LIGHT GLAZE IS EXPECTED. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDS CAN CREATE VERY HAZARDS TRAVEL.
2) THERE MAY BE A QUICK FREEZE OF RESIDUAL SNOW/ICE/WATER IN MOST
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE 20S. CONCERNS ARE
WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL, EVEN IF VERY LITTLE SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATE.
3) THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER SAT AFT/EVE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
TIME.
4) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
THE REGION FROM 600 PM TODAY THROUGH 1000 AM THURSDAY.
NO MAJOR HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
EXPECTED AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A COLD
FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S TODAY, OR WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
GENERALLY A LIGHT QPF EXPECTED TODAY AND ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN
UNTIL VERY LATE TODAY IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE UP
TO AN INCH LOCALLY, WITH MOST AREAS LESS THAN 0.5 BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE... RAIN IS LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE, AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
AROUND AND N-E OF THE TRIANGLE AREA BEFORE ENDING TONIGHT.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF GLAZE
(ICE) IN MANY OF THE ADVISORY AREAS TONIGHT. A LIGHT DUSTING SNOW OR
ICE PELLETS IS POSSIBLE IN THE QUICK TRANSITION ZONE, MAINLY OVER
THE NE PIEDMONT AND N COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE ENDING.
THE LOW QPF DURING THE CRITICAL TIME OF THE FROZEN/FREEZING WILL
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO LIGHT. HOWEVER, IT CAN STILL BE A RATHER HIGH
IMPACT EVENT WITH THE EXPECTED FREEZING CONDITIONS ARRIVING DURING
AND AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THUS, THE ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THERE MAY BE A QUICK FREEZE OF RESIDUAL
SNOW/ICE/WATER IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT AS THE TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO
THE 20S.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FLASH FREEZE TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE ADVISORY AREA. THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
20S OVERNIGHT. THE 32 DEGREE WET BULB FORECASTS SUGGEST THE NORTHERN
AREAS WILL FALL BELOW 25 AND THE FAR SOUTH BELOW 30 BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z/THURSDAY INCREASING CONFIDENCE. WE RAN THE ADVISORY THROUGH LATE
MORNING THURSDAY AS THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
MODERATE THURSDAY IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA.
PRECIPITATION WILL END IN THE EAST AND SOUTH BY AROUND 11Z-12Z
THURSDAY. WE MAINTAINED A 20-30 POP JUST PAST 12Z/THU TO ACCOUNT OF
ANY SLOWER EXIT.
3) THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER SAT AFT/EVE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
TIME.
A S/W ALOFT WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION FRI AFT/EVE, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER. HOWEVER, CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
4) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.
A ~1034 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL TRACK SSE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES FRI/FRI NIGHT, THEN CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE
ESEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY, WITH NWLY FLOW ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES
INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US SUN/SUN NIGHT, WHILE CONTINUING TO
RIDGE SSWWD INTO THE AREA. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE SAT THROUGH
SUN, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPR 30S NE TO UPR 40S/LOW 50S SW
AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL SUN NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WRT HOW LONG THE RIDGE/ARCTIC AIR WILL HOLD OVER
CENTRAL NC INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT A GENERAL MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED MON-TUE, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY
TUE/TUE NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT , FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, FOCUSED MAINLY FROM RDU SOUTH AND EAST TO RWI AND FAY.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AND LIFR THROUGH THE DAY,
EXPANDING TO ALL THE REGION BY LATE DAY. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE KINT TO KRWI AREAS
INCLUDING GSO AND RDU BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z, AND SPREADING SOUTH
BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY END BEFORE DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND SHOULD
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/KC/MWS
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
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