576
FXUS62 KRAH 041936
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ANSON,
RICHMOND AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES.
SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH REGARDS TO
THE NEWEST QPF.
A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE REGION.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTS AT 6 PM TODAY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY.
1) RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND SNOW LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY. MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
2) LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WILL SNOW/SLEET FRIDAY EVENING, NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
3) STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS LIGHT SNOW EARLY THURSDAY. MINOR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER, ALLOWING RAIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW. ANY BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO A SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND HALF INCH OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS THAT REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW, WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE, WITH ICE ACCRETIONS UP TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK TO LIGHT SNOW AS IT TAPERS
OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY TOO WARM FOR A FULL CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS LATE AS MID-MORNING, THOUGH A FEW
FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY MORNING WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
COLD AIR RELATIVE TO LINGERING MOISTURE. THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE UPPER 20S WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS
OVERNIGHT EARLY THURSDAY, WHILE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING.
OVERALL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR, WITH GENERALLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE AND A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN
THE TRANSITION ZONE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A LOW-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRI
MORNING THEN PUSH THROUGH VA/NC FRI EVENING. THIS FEATURE HAS
TRENDED SOUTH IN THE GFS/CMC DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND CLOSER TO THE
PERSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. ENSEMBLES FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE VA BORDER, MORE IN-LINE WITH THE BEST
DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER.
TO DETERMINE P-TYPE, A TOP-DOWN METHOD WAS APPLIED. POINT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT SATURATION WITHIN THE ICE-CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION
AND MODERATE OMEGA TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER, MOST DETERMINISTIC
MODELS DEPICT A DRY AND WARM SUB-CLOUD LAYER (MAX WETBULB OF 1-4C IN
LOWEST 500MB FROM 18-03Z) THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PARTIAL OR
COMPLETE MELTING TO SLEET OR RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER 00-03Z, AFTER WHICH
TIME PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING OUT.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND WARM NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY FROZEN
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BEHIND THE CLIPPER WAVE, A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER AND OFF THE
EAST COAST AND THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
TO A SUB-990MB LOW JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
STRONG > 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHIFTS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY SAT EVENING.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH
AXIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
FAVOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
DAYTIME HEATING MIXES INTO THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FROM CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS HIGHLIGHTING SIMILAR
INTENSITY AVERAGED THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. CLEAR SKIES AND ABUNDANT
INSOLATION, SHOULD RESULT IN EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND MAY RESULT IN INFREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-
40KTS, STRONGEST FROM THE MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 102 PM WEDNESDAY...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING STRATIFORM
RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD. INITIALLY, A
MIXTURE OF IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS FAY AND RWI, WHERE IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE MOST FAVORED. GSO/INT WILL LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN, BUT PERIODS OF LOW VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE. AS SATURATION
OCCURS, CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO LIFR-IFR IN MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THU. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH, A
TRANSITION TO SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS, BUT MOST FAVORED AT GSO, INT, RDU, AND RWI. SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY MIX IN, BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE AS
THE MOST FAVORED PTYPE. LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
MVFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, PERHAPS VFR BY 18-20Z THU.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR THU AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE REMAINING OUTLOOK
PERIOD, THOUGH A SYSTEM LATE FRI-SAT COULD BRING A BRIEF WINTRY MIX.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE STORM WILL BE STRONG GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-
35 KT AND LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE ON SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...CA/AS
AVIATION...KREN
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