062
FXUS62 KRAH 042354
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 655 PM WEDNESDAY...
* THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED EARLIER TO INCLUDE ANSON,
RICHMOND AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES.
* THE THREAT OF SNOW HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA. ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 655 PM WEDNESDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTED AT 6 PM AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10
AM THURSDAY.
1) RAIN THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING. MINOR IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED.
2) LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET FRIDAY EVENING, NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
3) STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 655 PM WEDNESDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING.
MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE EVENING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST, THE PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO
REMOVE ALL MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT TO PREVENT THE
GENERATION OF ICE CRYSTALS - THIS USUALLY REQUIRES A TEMPERATURE OF -
10 TO -12 C. WITH CLOUD TOPS REMAINING WARMER THAN THIS, IT APPEARS
THAT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIQUID. AS THE SURFACE DROPS
BELOW FREEZING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH
ALL LOCATIONS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY
EVERYWHERE SHOULD HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALL UNDER 60 PERCENT AFTER 4AM
THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF US-1 BY 7AM AND ENDING EVERYWHERE BY NOON. THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST ICE ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG US-64 TO THE EAST
OF THE TRIANGLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET FRIDAY EVENING,
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRI MORNING THEN PUSH
THROUGH VA/NC FRI EVENING. THIS FEATURE HAS TRENDED SOUTH IN THE
GFS/CMC DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT ECMWF
SOLUTION. ENSEMBLES FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT TO THE VA BORDER, MORE IN-LINE WITH THE BEST DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER.
TO DETERMINE P-TYPE, A TOP-DOWN METHOD WAS APPLIED. POINT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT SATURATION WITHIN THE ICE-CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION
AND MODERATE OMEGA TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER, MOST DETERMINISTIC
MODELS DEPICT A DRY AND WARM SUB-CLOUD LAYER (MAX WETBULB OF 1-4C IN
LOWEST 500MB FROM 18-03Z) THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PARTIAL OR
COMPLETE MELTING TO SLEET OR RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER 00-03Z, AFTER WHICH
TIME PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING OUT.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND WARM NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY FROZEN
ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3... STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER WAVE, A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IS EXPECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER AND OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO A SUB-990MB LOW
JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME STRONG > 1030MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SAT EVENING.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH
AXIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
FAVOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
DAYTIME HEATING MIXES INTO THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FROM CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS HIGHLIGHTING SIMILAR
INTENSITY AVERAGED THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. CLEAR SKIES AND ABUNDANT
INSOLATION, SHOULD RESULT IN EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND MAY RESULT IN INFREQUENT GUSTS OF 30-
40KTS, STRONGEST FROM THE MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 655 PM WEDNESDAY...
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR OVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON THU, DUE TO A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE CAROLINAS, AND THE WORST AND LONGEST-LASTING ADVERSE CONDITIONS
WILL BE OVER THE S AND SE (ESPECIALLY FAY). AT INT/GSO, MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR BY 03Z, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS
OVERNIGHT AND SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM 03Z TO AROUND 08Z, AT
WHICH TIME WE SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS, LASTING MUCH OF
THU UNTIL VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND 21Z. ELSEWHERE AT
RDU/FAY/RWI, THE CURRENT IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THU, WITH THE CURRENT SHIELD OF MORE
STEADY RAIN TRENDING DOWN TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE LASTING
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK -- MAINLY 03Z-08Z NW (RDU) TO 07Z-
12Z SE (FAY). A GRADUAL TREND TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS IS THEN
EXPECTED AFTER 11Z AT RDU AND RWI, BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT FAY.
ACCUMULATION OF A LIGHT GLAZE IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES TONIGHT
(MAINLY LATE EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK THU), BUT DUE TO THE LIGHT
AMOUNTS AND/OR SHORT DURATION AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION, THE IMPACTS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR, WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF GLAZING AS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
MAINLY FROM THE NE OR NNE SUSTAINED AT 8-13 KTS, AND A FEW GUSTS TO
15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT FAY ON THU 13Z-20Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z FRI, ANY LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (MOST
LIKELY AT FAY) AFTER 00Z SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID EVENING THU.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH MON, ALTHOUGH A QUICK-
MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS AND A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
MAINLY NE (RDU/RWI) FRI NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY SAT, WHICH MAY INDUCE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/CA/AS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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