862
FXUS62 KRAH 050816
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EST WED FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 312 AM THURSDAY...
* THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW NW,
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING, THEN MODELS HAVE TRENDED CLOUDY AND COLD ALL DAY.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG COLD NW WINDS ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM TODAY.
1) AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND NORTH. A CHANGE
TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FAR SE
BEFORE ENDING MID-MORNING. ALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT
HAZARDOUS FOR TRAVEL AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S. CLOUDY AND
COLD TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S.
2) STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD WAVE ARRIVES.
3) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1... AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND NORTH. A
CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED
FAR SE BEFORE ENDING MID-MORNING. ALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT,
BUT HAZARDOUS AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S.
MOST OF THE SNOW WAS LOCATED ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON
TO BURLINGTON TO NEAR RDU. RADAR RETURNS ARE LIGHT AND RATHER PATCHY
AS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN THE FOOTHILLS AND NW PIEDMONT WHERE STEADY
LIGHT SNOW WAS FALLING. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IN THE 2-5 MILE
RANGE, WITH AN OCCASIONAL 1 TO 1 1/2 MILE REPORTED AT GREENSBORO AND
HICKORY. RDU REPORTED A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN AT 250
AM. AS THE COLDER AND DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTH, CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DEVELOPING QUICKLY AS
READINGS FALL INTO THE 20S BETWEEN 400 AM AND 700 AM FOR MANY AREAS.
LIGHT RAIN WAS BECOMING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SE AS THE COLD
AIR SURGES IN. AT 300 AM, THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALBEMARLE TO ERWIN TO GOLDSBORO, MOVING SOUTH.
AS EXPECTED, THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
QPF OF ONLY 0.01 TO 0.10, HIGHER SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. A LIGHT
DUSTING TO 0.5 INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT, WITH A LIGHT GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN IN AN ARCH FROM
WADESBORO AND LAURINBURG TO GOLDSBORO. IT ONLY TAKES A VERY LIGHT
AMOUNT OF ICE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL - WITH BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES THE MOST HAZARDOUS AS THEY WILL FREEZE FIRST.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF BY 12Z-15Z FROM NW TO E, WITH A CHILLY LOW OVERCAST LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND CLEAR
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RISE IF
AT ALL THROUGH LATE MORNING, THEN HIGHS IN THE MID 30S ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S, EXCEPT 15 TO 20 IN
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR.
FRIDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY EARLY, BUT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IN THE PM. THE CHILL WILL LINGER AS HIGHS REACH 40-45.
KEY MESSAGE 2... STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONT.
EXPECT A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ON SAT, BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. ALOFT, UNDER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL
FLOW, CENTRAL NC WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST, WITH STRONG NWLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE MID/UPR LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
AT H85 AND H7, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC WHERE H7 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS ARE
FORECAST (GFS). SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE, EXPECT A VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
THE ~1034 MB ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST (MOVING SEWD FROM THE UPR
MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY) AND A DEEPENING LOW TO THE EAST (OVER
THE ATLANTIC, NNW OF BERMUDA).
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH
AXIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
FAVOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
DAYTIME HEATING MIXES INTO THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FROM CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-35
KTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS HIGHLIGHTING SIMILAR
INTENSITY AVERAGED THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. CLEAR SKIES AND ABUNDANT
INSOLATION, SHOULD RESULT IN EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND MAY RESULT IN INFREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-
45KTS, STRONGEST FROM THE MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
THE NW/NRN PIEDMONT. THE WINDS/GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE/ABATE SAT NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SURFACE TO
H85 RELAXES.
KEY MESSAGE 3... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
A ~1034 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL TRACK SSE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE OH VALLEY, THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE ESEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY,
WITH NWLY FLOW ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES A BIT ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AS IT CONTINUES EWD
SUN/SUN NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION
MON/MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT TUE. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE SAT
THROUGH SUN, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW/MID 30S NORTH TO LOW/MID
40S SOUTH AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. WITH THE
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT, HIGHS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LOW
20S NORTH TO LOW/MID 30S SOUTH. ALSO, THERE COULD BE SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
COOLING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUN NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 20S. A GENERAL MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MON-WED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 110 AM THURSDAY...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z AT
ALL SITES. PERIODS OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREDOMINATE LIGHT SNOW NW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET RDU
AND RWI, AND LIGHT RAIN AT FAY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, MAINLY SE OF THE
GSO/INT AREAS.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR WILL OCCUR LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING STRATUS BECOMING STRATOCUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO 4-5K FEET BY 18Z-21Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 21Z TODAY, ANY LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (MOST
LIKELY AT FAY) AFTER 00Z SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID EVENING THU.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH MON, ALTHOUGH A QUICK-
MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS AND A LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER MAINLY NE (RDU/RWI) FRI NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
BRISK AND GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY SAT, WHICH MAY INDUCE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/KC
AVIATION...BADGETT
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