941
FXUS62 KRAH 051132
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
632 AM EST WED FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 632 AM THURSDAY...
* THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES. MOST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THIS WILL BE ENDING BY MID-
MORNING. AREAS OF SLICK ICY PARKING LOTS AND SIDE ROADS NOW
SHOWING UP.
* CONTINUED INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG COLD NW WINDS ON
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 632 AM THURSDAY...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM TODAY.
1) THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES. MOST LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THIS WILL BE ENDING BY MID-
MORNING. THERE ARE REPORTS OF SLIPPERY SPOTS ON AREA STREETS AND
PARKING LOTS IN AND AROUND THE TRIANGLE.
2) STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD WAVE ARRIVES.
3) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 632 AM THURSDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ENDING AS MUCH DRIER AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR OF NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN CRASHING, THE CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
LIFTING, AND THE PATCHY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DRYING UP.
THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF A DUSTING OF SNOW FROM THE TRIAD. THERE
ARE REPORTS OF SLICK ICY SPOTS IN THE TRIANGLE AND HARNETT COUNTY
(SURROUNDING AREAS) AS OF 630 AM. THERE ARE REPORTS OF FLASH
FREEZING WITH CAR DOORS HARD TO OPEN AND SLICK PARKING LOTS DUE TO
FREEZING OF RAIN WATER FROM THE TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST.
IT ONLY TAKES A VERY LIGHT AMOUNT OF ICE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL -
WITH BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES THE MOST HAZARDOUS AS THEY WILL FREEZE
FIRST.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF BY 12Z-15Z FROM NW TO E, WITH A CHILLY LOW OVERCAST LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND CLEAR
OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RISE IF
AT ALL THROUGH LATE MORNING, THEN HIGHS IN THE MID 30S ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S, EXCEPT 15 TO 20 IN
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR.
FRIDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY EARLY, BUT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IN THE PM. THE CHILL WILL LINGER AS HIGHS REACH 40-45.
KEY MESSAGE 2... STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE ARCTIC
FRONT.
EXPECT A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ON SAT, BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. ALOFT, UNDER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL
FLOW, CENTRAL NC WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH TO THE EAST, WITH STRONG NWLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE MID/UPR LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
AT H85 AND H7, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NC WHERE H7 WINDS OF 40-50 KTS ARE
FORECAST (GFS). SIMILARLY AT THE SURFACE, EXPECT A VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC, WHICH WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
THE ~1034 MB ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST (MOVING SEWD FROM THE UPR
MS VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY) AND A DEEPENING LOW TO THE EAST (OVER
THE ATLANTIC, NNW OF BERMUDA).
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH
AXIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
FAVOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
DAYTIME HEATING MIXES INTO THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE FROM CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-35
KTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS HIGHLIGHTING SIMILAR
INTENSITY AVERAGED THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. CLEAR SKIES AND ABUNDANT
INSOLATION, SHOULD RESULT IN EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND MAY RESULT IN INFREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-
45KTS, STRONGEST FROM THE MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
THE NW/NRN PIEDMONT. THE WINDS/GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE/ABATE SAT NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SURFACE TO
H85 RELAXES.
KEY MESSAGE 3... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
A ~1034 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL TRACK SSE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE OH VALLEY, THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE ESEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY,
WITH NWLY FLOW ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES A BIT ON THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AS IT CONTINUES EWD
SUN/SUN NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE RIDGE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION
MON/MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT TUE. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE SAT
THROUGH SUN, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW/MID 30S NORTH TO LOW/MID
40S SOUTH AND LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. WITH THE
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON SAT, HIGHS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LOW
20S NORTH TO LOW/MID 30S SOUTH. ALSO, THERE COULD BE SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS DEVELOPMENT SAT NIGHT, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
COOLING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUN NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 20S. A GENERAL MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MON-WED.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z, MAINLY SE OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN VFR WILL OCCUR LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING STRATUS BECOMING STRATOCUMULUS
THIS AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO 4-5K FEET BY 18Z-21Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 21Z TODAY, ANY LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (MOST
LIKELY AT FAY) AFTER 00Z SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID EVENING THU.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH MON, ALTHOUGH A QUICK-
MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS AND A LIGHT
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER MAINLY NE (RDU/RWI) FRI NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
BRISK AND GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY SAT, WHICH MAY INDUCE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/KC
AVIATION...BADGETT
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