059
FXUS62 KRAH 060016
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...
* A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TRIAD
COUNTIES FOR CONTINUED BLACK ICE CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WIND
GUSTS ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...
1) AREAS OF PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
OVER THE TRIAD REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED PATCHY FOG
AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
2) LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT TIMES FRIDAY EVENING.
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
3) STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
4) FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY ARE BEING EVALUATED AND
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AFTER CONFERRING WITH NCFS ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1... AREAS OF PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING OVER THE TRIAD REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED PATCHY FOG AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NW
PIEDMONT INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MESOANALYSIS, THIS
LIGHT SNOW AREA SEEMS TO BE DRIVEN BY SOME LOW-LEVEL FGEN
WITHIN THE MOIST NE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. NO CAM
GUIDANCE IS HAVING ANY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SNOW BUT FEEL GIVEN
LATEST RADAR TRENDS, THE LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW SHOULD TAPER OFF
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SNOWFALL
REPORTS FROM LAST NIGHT RANGED FROM 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TRIAD. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW MUCH OF
THIS MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING, AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THIS EVENING INTO MID- MORNING FRI FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE IN OUR
TRIAD COUNTIES OF FORSYTH, DAVIDSON, GUILFORD, AND RANDOLPH.
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AND THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT EARLY FRI MORNING. SOME HREF MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT GREAT.
IF THIS WERE TO FORM, SOME ISOLATED FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET AT TIMES
FRIDAY EVENING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE CLIPPER WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRI MORNING THEN
PUSH THROUGH VA/NC FRI EVENING, BRINGING 50-70M H5 HEIGHT FALLS
IN 24 HOURS OF SYNOPTIC FORCING. THIS FEATURE IS NOW BEING MORE
REGULARLY MODELED BY HI-RES GUIDANCE AND IS RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT, BUT NOTICEABLE, UPTICK ON QPF (AS MUCH AS 0.1 OF AN INCH
IN SPOTS).
TO DETERMINE P-TYPE, A TOP-DOWN METHOD AND TRENDS NOMOGRAM
ANALYSIS WAS APPLIED. PARTIAL THICKNESS OF < 1530M (850-700MB
LAYER) AND BETWEEN 1310 AND 1290 (1000-850MB LAYER) SUGGEST
INDETERMINATE AND S (SNOW) WILL BE THE DOMINATE CATEGORIES.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MID LVLS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD
TO PRODUCE SNOW, WITH SUFFICIENT SATURATION WHICH POINT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT, BUT THE PRIMARY DRIVER IN THE RESULTANT PHASE
STATE ONCE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND WILL BE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION RATES. MAX WETBULB OF 1-4C IN
LOWEST 500MB FROM 18-03Z AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S TO
UPPER 30S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PARTIAL OR PERHAPS COMPLETE
MELTING TO SLEET OR RAIN.
THE SENSIBLE RESULT AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN THAT MAY
MIX WITH OR BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AT TIMES GIVEN SUFFICIENT
RATE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF A PERIOD OF
SNOW DOES OCCUR, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONVERSATIONAL AND NONE
IMPACTFUL DUE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL AROUND 10 PM, AFTER WHICH TIME PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
KEY MESSAGE 3... STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER WAVE, A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER AND OFF THE EAST COAST
AND THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE,
AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO A
SUB-990MB LOW JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
STRONG > 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHIFTS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SAT EVENING.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING
TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND FAVOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES INTO THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM CAA BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. CLEAR
SKIES AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION, SHOULD RESULT IN EFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND MAY RESULT
IN INFREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS, STRONGEST FROM THE MID-
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 4... FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY ARE BEING
EVALUATED AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AFTER CONFERRING WITH NCFS
ON FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, VERY DRY
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FURTHER WARM/DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINATION OF
VERY DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MET THE METEOROLOGICAL
CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IF NOT
RED FLAG WARNING.
COLLABORATION WITH FIRE PARTNERS AT NCFS WILL NEED TO OCCUR TO
ASSESS THE SOIL CONDITIONS, LONG-TERM FUELS, AND IMPACTS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S WOULD HAVE, AND IF ANY OF
THESE PARAMETERS MAY MITIGATE OTHERWISE FAVOR METEOROLOGICAL
PATTERN FOR ERRATIC/DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 715 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ACROSS CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
THROUGH FRI, ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC VFR CLOUD DECKS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. OVC CLOUDS BASED AT 5-6KFT AGL OVER EASTERN TAF SITES
CURRENTLY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE, AND THESE CLOUDS
WILL EXIT THIS EVENING, LEAVING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR SKIES OVER
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS BEFORE EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADS
IN FROM THE W AND NW, LASTING THROUGH FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF GROUND FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE W PIEDMONT INCLUDING INT/GSO FOR
A FEW PREDAWN HOURS TONIGHT/EARLY FRI, BUT THE RISK APPEARS TOO
SMALL AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THESE TAFS. LATER IN THE PERIOD, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, A FEW SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 19Z AT
INT/GSO AND AFTER 21Z AT RDU; CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LARGELY VFR WITH THIS PRECIP, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE NW THROUGH MID MORNING FRI,
THEN INCREASE FROM THE SW AND WSW TO 7-10 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 15-19 KTS LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF FRI.
OUTLOOK AFTER 00Z SAT: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE NE (RDU/RWI) AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPOTTY
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID EVENING FRI, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE LATE FRI NIGHT
TO EARLY SAT, THEN STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST MOST OF SAT, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MECHANICAL TURBULENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
SAT THROUGH WED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/AS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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