069
FXUS62 KRAH 061748
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1247 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...
* WE WILL BE VERY COLD AND WINDY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE WILL BE
NEARING WIND ADVISORY AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES. WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
* FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALL WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP
FIRE DANGER LOW THIS WEEKEND, EVEN WITH THE STRONG WINDS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 309 AM FRIDAY...
1) AREAS OF PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE TRIAD
REGION.
2) STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
3) COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EITHER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 309 AM FRIDAY..
KEY MESSAGE 1... AREAS OF PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
OVER THE TRIAD REGION.
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 1000 AM FOR
THE NW PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION. THIS IS WHERE SNOW/ICE LINGER AND
AREAS OF BLACK ICE ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THIS
MORNING. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON HELPING THE
SITUATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2... STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. IT MAY
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE MIXED
WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
EARLY THIS EVENING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MORE IMPORTANTLY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AT 15-25 MPH BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT AN
OUR OR TWO AFTER THE FROPA, THEN STEADILY INCREASE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WITH MIXING EARLY SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY
EXCEED 40 TO 45 MPH. LATER DATA WILL BE ANALYZED FOR A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH
AXIS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND FAVOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES INTO THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE FROM CAA BEHIND THE
FRONT. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
BOTH NAM AND GFS HIGHLIGHTING SIMILAR INTENSITY AVERAGED THROUGH THE
MIXED LAYER. CLEAR SKIES AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION, SHOULD RESULT IN
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND MAY
RESULT IN INFREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-45KTS, STRONGEST FROM THE MID-
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NW/NRN PIEDMONT. THE
WINDS/GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE/ABATE SAT NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SURFACE TO H85 RELAXES.
KEY MESSAGE 3... COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE EITHER TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
A ~1034 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL TRACK SSE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE OH VALLEY, THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE ESEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY,
WITH NWLY FLOW ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS INDICATE SUB-10 DEGREE WIND CHILLS LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. IF THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY STRONG AND
THE TEMPERATURES DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES FROM CURRENT FORECASTS, A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR NW AND N COUNTIES OF THE PIEDMONT IN LATER
FORECASTS.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT, HIGHS
SATURDAY ONLY 30-39, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS.
SUNDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COLD, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. UPSTREAM SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE STILL BRINGS SHOWERS INTO
OUR TRIAD AROUND ~20Z, KRDU AROUND ~22Z, AND KRWI BY ~23Z. NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR AS KFAY,
BUT ADDED A PROB30 TO HANDLE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE DOMINANT PTYPE AT
KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KFAY SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE WE COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KRWI (AND A LESSER
CHANCE AT KINT/KGSO) FOR A FEW HOURS. OVERALL THOUGH, OTHER THAN
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT. WIND GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PICK UP
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PEAK IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
KTS SATURDAY MORNING (HIGHEST CHANCES FOR HIGH END WIND GUSTS AT
KINT/KGSO/KRWI). WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT STILL MIX SOME EVEN INTO THE EVENING PERIOD.
WHILE TRADITIONAL LLWS IS NOT LIKELY, MECHANICAL LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KINT/KGSO.
OUTLOOK AFTER 00Z/SUN: WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/KC
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/BADGETT
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