483
FXUS62 KRAH 061857
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
157 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...
* SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
* WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC AND
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM UNTIL 7 PM ON SATURDAY.
* CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT, BUT MAY
RESULT IN IMPACTFUL OR DANGEROUS COLD EARLY SAT MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...
1) A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD COULD MIX OR
CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF US-64 AND I-85
2) A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC SATURDAY
AS STRONG/IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
3) UNSEASONABLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON DURATION/MAGNITUDE FOR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE A 1-2 HOUR
PERIOD COULD MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG/NORTH OF US-64 AND I-85
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY
WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL NC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS WILL FAVOR STRONG LIFT OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING A NICE
BLOSSOMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS KY/VA AND THIS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR NW AREAS SUCH AS THE TRIAD AROUND 3 PM. LIGHT
SNOW HAS EVEN BEEN REPORTED UPSTREAM IN SOUTHWEST VA. THE
PRECIPITATION BAND WILL MAINLY MOVE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
US-64, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS FAYETTEVILLE
AND THE SANDHILLS. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM, TRACKING
FROM NW TO ESE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID-EVENING HOURS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRIAD, TRIANGLE, AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US-64 AND I-85, A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SOME HEAVY WET SNOWFLAKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NARROW TIME
PERIOD WHERE STRONG FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
DIABATIC COOLING COULD FAVOR THIS POTENTIAL. SNOW CHANCES WILL
LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY PRECIPITATION RATES. A LIGHT DUSTING OR LESS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS, MAINLY
ON GRASS/ELEVATED SURFACES GIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEF LOW VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADWAYS
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE, BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED. ONCE
THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING, A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL START
TO PICK UP EARLY SAT MORNING, PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY AS STRONG/IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER WAVE, A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IS EXPECTED FROM THE TROUGH OVER AND OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO A SUB-990MB LOW
JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME STRONG > 1030MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SAT AFTERNOON.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH
AXIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
FAVOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT, POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A VERY SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE UNTIL AFTER 4 AM.
AFTER 4 AM, STRONG PRESSURE RISES, ON THE ORDER OF 4-6MB PER 3HRS,
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AND ERODE THE VERY
SHALLOW STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE BEFORE SUNRISE, PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS OF AROUND 35 KTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES INTO THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES AND ABUNDANT INSOLATION, SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER AND MAY RESULT IN INFREQUENT GUSTS OF 40-45 KTS, STRONGEST
FROM THE MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3... UNSEASONABLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON DURATION/MAGNITUDE FOR
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
A ~1034 MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL TRACK SSE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE OH VALLEY, THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE ESEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY,
WITH NWLY FLOW ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA.
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA TONIGHT MAY COUPLE WITH BITTER
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
SCENARIO SINCE COLD AIR TYPICALLY TAKES NOTICEABLY LONGER TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THAN HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES, AND RESULTS IN WARMER WIND CHILLS. CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATES WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS TO 20S WILL BE
MOST COMMON, BUT BRIEFLY MAY DROP BELOW 10 TO AROUND 5 DEGREES.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES AND WITH SOME CONTINUED LIGHT STIRRING MAY
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO AS LOW AS 5 DEGREES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN (WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
10 DEGREES).
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. UPSTREAM SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE STILL BRINGS SHOWERS INTO
OUR TRIAD AROUND ~20Z, KRDU AROUND ~22Z, AND KRWI BY ~23Z. NOT
ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR AS KFAY,
BUT ADDED A PROB30 TO HANDLE FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE DOMINANT PTYPE AT
KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KFAY SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE WE COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT KRWI (AND A LESSER
CHANCE AT KINT/KGSO) FOR A FEW HOURS. OVERALL THOUGH, OTHER THAN
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY, IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT. WIND GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PICK UP
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PEAK IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
KTS SATURDAY MORNING (HIGHEST CHANCES FOR HIGH END WIND GUSTS AT
KINT/KGSO/KRWI). WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT STILL MIX SOME EVEN INTO THE EVENING PERIOD.
WHILE TRADITIONAL LLWS IS NOT LIKELY, MECHANICAL LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KINT/KGSO.
OUTLOOK AFTER 00Z/SUN: WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>077.
DISCUSSION...KREN/AS/10
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/BADGETT
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