627
FXUS62 KRAH 071740
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1236 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 114 AM SATURDAY...
* THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM UNTIL 7 PM ON
SATURDAY FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC.
* A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 114 AM SATURDAY...
1) GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC.
2) THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 114 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND WAS OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED
OFFSHORE AS OF 04Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SKIES HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA (AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT). WHAT CLOUD COVER REMAINS DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS APPEARS VERY WAVY IN NATURE SUGGESTING A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF TURBULENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
925-850MB WINDS AROUND 45-50KTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, COINCIDENT WITH A GRADUAL STEEPENING OF BL
LAPSE RATES. BY THE TIME WE GET TO APPROX 09Z, WE SHOULD SEE MOST
SITES (ESPECIALLY THOSE NORTH OF US-64) TAPPING INTO SOME OF THESE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SERVE
AS THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BECOME A VERY BREEZY DAY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40
MPH AT TIMES, CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC
TODAY. WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY, ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER EXTENT,
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE GUSTS SHOULD
MAX OUT AROUND 30-35 MPH. AS SUCH, THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNCHANGED FROM 4 AM THIS MORNING TO 7
PM TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND COLD ARCTIC AIR
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL NOT DROP OFF
COMPLETELY WITH AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF GUSTINESS PERSISTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE, POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NC WITH AMBIENT AIR TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID
TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ON
THEIR OWN THESE TEMPS WOULDN'T NECESSITATE ANY SORT OF COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES HOWEVER THE ONGOING BREEZINESS WILL KNOCK WIND CHILLS DOWN
BELOW 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND THEY HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY, WIND CHILLS WILL BE SIMILAR ALTHOUGH A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NECESSARY TO TRIGGER A HEADLINE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1236 PM SATURDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
STARTING TO TRICKLE DOWNWARD (STILL GUSTING IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
NEW HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW AT KINT/KGSO/KRDU MID SUNDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.
IT'S NOT QUITE CLEAR IF THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH THE
TOWERS/GROUND GIVEN A CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS DRYNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THINK
IF IT OCCURS, BEST CHANCES WOULD BE AT KINT/KGSO BETWEEN ~14 AND
17Z. LITTLE IMPACTS OTHER THAN SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIP.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT
OTHERWISE LIMITED AVIATION IMPACTS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>077.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-075>078-085-086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/LEINS
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