168
FXUS62 KRAH 071758
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1258 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
* CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
1) THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN
2) CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
3) ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY
4) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK, BRINGING
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX ON FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM THIS EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS
AND COASTAL PLAIN
THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR A
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND MUCH OF
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SO FAR, WIND GUSTS HAVE
DEFINITELY MET CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA TODAY. OUR
HIGHEST GUSTS HAVE RANGED IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE TRIAD. THESE STRONG NW WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY SLACK OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE MAY PERSIST INTO
EARLY EVENING, BUT DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. WITH
THOSE WEAKER GUSTS TONIGHT, WIND CHILLS IN THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO MID-MORNING SUNDAY AS LOW TUMBLE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS IN THE NE GETTING
INTO THE LOWER TEENS UNDER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2... CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW SUNDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
A MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ENERGY WILL GENERATE MAINLY JUST LOTS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DECENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER THAT TRACKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC. WITH THE AIRMASS BEING CERTAINLY WELL
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANYTHING THAT FALLS
WOULD BE OF SNOW ORIGIN. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN
THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE THIS DRYNESS, SOME OF
THE 12Z HREF MEMBERS AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION COULD
EXTEND AS FAR DOWN AS 2-3 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. IF THAT WERE TO
OCCUR, SOME OF THE SNOW COULD SURVIVE BEFORE DRYING OUT ALOFT AND
LEAD TO SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY.
THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THIS WOULD BE BETWEEN 10 AM AND 2 PM SUNDAY.
WE ARE STILL SKEPTICAL THAT ANYTHING COULD REACH THE GROUND IN THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS, BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE IT OUT. AT WORST, A
LIGHT DUSTING COULD OCCUR OVER THE TRIAD, NORTHERN PIEDMONT, AND
NORTHERN TRIANGLE. OUTSIDE OF THAT, NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3... ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROMOTE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RUN AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS MARKS THE FIRST PERIOD
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SINCE EARLY TO MID JANUARY (JAN 4–11
AND JAN 22–23). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING,
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 4... AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK, BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX ON FRIDAY
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID TO
LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST
CHANCE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY, WHEN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL SUPPORT
ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY FALLING AS A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY
MAY BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1236 PM SATURDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
STARTING TO TRICKLE DOWNWARD (STILL GUSTING IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF GUSTINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
NEW HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW AT KINT/KGSO/KRDU MID SUNDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS.
IT'S NOT QUITE CLEAR IF THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REACH THE
TOWERS/GROUND GIVEN A CONSIDERABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS DRYNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THINK
IF IT OCCURS, BEST CHANCES WOULD BE AT KINT/KGSO BETWEEN ~14 AND
17Z. LITTLE IMPACTS OTHER THAN SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS PRECIP.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER BUT
OTHERWISE LIMITED AVIATION IMPACTS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>077.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ011-027-028-042-043-075>078-085-086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...CA/KREN
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/LEINS
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