309
FXUS62 KRAH 221744
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1244 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 204 AM SUNDAY...
* SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW,
MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 204 AM SUNDAY...
1) TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE SECOND
WAVE FAVORING A BRIEF PERIOD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE FAR NE. GUSTY
WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE AS TEMPERATURES CRASH
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
2) GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE AS THE
WORK WEEK STARTS OUT BELOW NORMAL.
3) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING THIS WEEK. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 204 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
WITH THE SECOND WAVE FAVORING A BRIEF PERIOD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN
THE FAR NE. GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING IN THE 30 TO 45 MPH RANGE AS
TEMPERATURES CRASH BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
OVERVIEW: A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO BRING A
PLETHORA OF WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION, GUSTY WINDS, A RETURN TO WINTER, AS WELL AS ENDING AS
A LITTLE SNOW IN SOME SPOTS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY OVER THE
MS TO OH VALLEY REGION WILL INTENSIFY AS IT DIGS INTO SE VA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE DEEPENING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM JUST OFF THE NC COAST NEAR THE OUTER BANKS EARLY TODAY AND
RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO SUB 970-MB OFF THE COAST OF NJ MON MORNING.
PRECIPITATION: EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTED
WAVES OF RAINFALL. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN IS JUST STARTING TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEP LIFT
AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABOVE-
NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES. THIS FIRST WAVE WILL LAST UNTIL ABOUT EARLY
TO MID-MORNING, EARLIEST TO END OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
SLOWEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN
LATE THIS MORNING, WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST, WHERE EVEN A FEW PEEKS OF SUN COULD BREAK OUT NEAR
THE TRIAD AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE EVENING, ROUGHLY 1 PM TO 10
PM, AS THE UPPER-LOW DIGS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND DPVA RAPIDLY
INCREASES. THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE
IMPRESSIVE CAA UP TO MID-LEVELS WILL FUEL DEEP LIFT FOR A
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING MAINLY FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS WRAP-AROUND PRECIP BAND WILL
FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW (SEE SNOW SECTION BELOW), MAINLY IN THE
5 PM TO 10 PM PERIOD. TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED
MUCH. THE 00Z HREF AGREES WELL WITH PRIOR ESTIMATES, RANGING FROM A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
TO NEAR 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
SNOW: AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE AND STRONG CAA BUILDS IN
FROM THE WNW, TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH FROM THE MIDDLE 40S LATE TODAY
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT AND WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER 20S.
THIS WILL FEEL QUITE COLD COMPARED TO THE RECENT MILD STRETCH. AS
THIS COLD AIR BUILDS IN, THERE WILL BE A NARROW 3 TO 5 HR WINDOW (5
PM TO 10 PM) WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW, MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE AND TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, ROUGHLY FROM RALEIGH TO ROXBORO AND WILSON TO
ROANOKE RAPIDS. THIS IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED
TO THE PRIOR FORECAST, WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW
RANGES FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT IN NE SECTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE, TO 50-80
PERCENT IN THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. WITHIN
THE 3 TO 5 HR WINDOW, THERE IS A 1-3 HR WINDOW (6-9 PM) WHEN LIFT
WILL MAXIMIZE IN THE DGZ AND WHEN WET-BULB TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW
30S, FOR MAINLY THE NE PIEDMONT TO NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, FROM
ROXBORO TO HENDERSON TO NORLINA TO ROANOKE RAPIDS TO ENFIELD, OR
GRANVILLE, VANCE, WARREN, AND HALIFAX COUNTIES. IN THESE AREAS, THE
PROBABILITY OF A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS ROUGHLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR AN INCH OF SNOW TO 20-30
PERCENT VIA THE HREF. IN SUMMARY, CURRENT SNOW ESTIMATES POINT TO A
DUSTING AROUND THE TRIANGLE, TO NEAR A HALF INCH ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES AND NEAR THE VA BORDER. WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
WORSE-CASE SCENARIO OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF THESE
AREAS, BUT CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY WAS TOO LOW AT THIS
STAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ANY ACCUMULATIONS, GIVEN
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES, WOULD BE ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES,
SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED.
WINDS: THE STRONG CAA COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND
STRONG WINDS OF 30-45 KT IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF BRISK/GUSTY WINDS STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WEST AND EARLY TO MID-EVENING IN THE EAST. GUSTS FROM THE WNW
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 30-45 MPH, WITH SOME INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT,
BUT STAY ELEVATED IN THE 15-30 MPH RANGE INTO EARLY MON. CONFIDENCE
TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. AS TO FIRE CONCERNS, WET GROUND FROM
EXPECTED RAIN AND COLDER TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT FIRE DANGER, BUT IF RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE LESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST, COULD SEE A LOW-END IFD
CRITERIA BEING MET THERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE AS THE WORK WEEK STARTS OUT BELOW NORMAL.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE WITH THE STRONG LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND 1038-MB
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS RANGE FROM
25-30 KT, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A COLD FEEL TO
START THE WORK WEEK WITH SOME UPPER TEENS FOR WIND CHILLS MON
MORNING. THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE HIGHS STARTING OUT 10-14 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES COLDEST MON NIGHT
INTO TUE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 3... TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING THIS WEEK. TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON
THURSDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
HANGS ON AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
AS SUCH, TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A BROAD WAA REGIME.
MEANWHILE, A DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. A PERIOD
OF WEAK WAA-DRIVEN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTHWARD INTO VA, WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP FOCUSED ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE IDEA THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO WHEN PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. FOR THE
TIME BEING WE'LL BRING POPS IN EARLY THURSDAY AND CARRY THEM THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (STICKING CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS), ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE RECENT DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS KEEP THURSDAY MOSTLY DRY
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. EITHER
WAY, IT SHOULD BE MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH
THIS EVENT, WITH PRECIP TIMING OF ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE THE BIGGEST
SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD.
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 50S (NW) TO
MID 60S (SE). OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM SUNDAY...
TAF PERIOD: THE GREATEST IMPACT IN THE TAFS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL LIKELY COME FROM THE WIND. AS A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA, RESULTING IN INCREASED SUSTAINED WIND AND
WIND GUSTS. WHILE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 20 KT, ALL
SITES ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, DROPPING TO 20-30 KT MONDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL
BEGIN OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY BACKING TO THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING.
FROM A CEILING/VISIBILITY PERSPECTIVE, NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT INT/GSO. FARTHER TO THE EAST, MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN INTO
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT WITH ONLY VFR
CLOUDS REMAINING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BACKED FAY OFF FROM PREVAILING
RAIN TO VCSH WITH MUCH OF THE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE
NORTH, WHILE CONTINUING PREVAILING RAIN AT RDU/RWI. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME FLURRIES MIXING IN AT THE END AT RDU, BUT RWI REMAINS THE MOST
LIKELY TERMINAL TO RECEIVE ANY SNOW ALONG WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK: WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN
RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/LEINS
AVIATION...GREEN
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