276
FXUS62 KRAH 230014
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...
* MINIMAL CHANGE TO OVERALL EXPECTATIONS, WITH A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO
WET SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NE CWA IN LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING, WITH A DUSTING TO QUARTER INCH EXPECTED, AND
A CHANCE FOR UP TO A HALF INCH. THE RISK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
BE GREATEST ALONG AND NE OF A ROXBORO-TO-WILSON LINE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...
1) STILL EXPECT RAIN TO TREND TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NE CWA, MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF A ROXBORO-TO-
WILSON LINE, OCCURRING BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING, WITH
A DUSTING TO NEAR A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. BRISK AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.
2) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING THIS WEEK. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... STILL EXPECT RAIN TO TREND TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NE CWA, MAINLY ALONG AND NE OF A
ROXBORO-TO-WILSON LINE, OCCURRING BETWEEN LATE AFTERNOON AND LATE
EVENING, WITH A DUSTING TO NEAR A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.
OVERVIEW: THE SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKED E ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER
FAR S NC THIS MORNING AND WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE IN PART FOR THIS
MORNING'S RAIN HAS MOVED TO JUST OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS, AND HAS
BEEN FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF DRYING ALOFT, NOTED ON WV IMAGERY, AND
A PAUSE IN THE RAIN. BUT THIS SHORT-LIVED RELATIVE PRECIP LULL IS
ALREADY GIVING WAY TO RAIN BLOSSOMING OVER THE PIEDMONT, A RESULT OF
INTENSIFYING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING
STRONG AND NEGATIVELY-TILTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THE
SURFACE LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE N NC / VA / DELMARVA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, PRECIP WILL EXPAND AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ESP OVER THE N AND E CWA, NECESSITATING
ANOTHER PEAK IN POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.
PRECIP: THE EARLIER RAIN GENERATED WIDE-RANGING AMOUNTS FROM A TENTH
INCH OR LESS IN THE FAR W AND FAR SE, TO A BAND OF ONE-HALF TO NEAR
ONE INCH OF LIQUID FROM NEAR HBI TO RDU TO IXA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG MID LEVEL
DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS AND PEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE, COINCIDING WITH AN
UPTURN IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO FALL AS DRIER AND COLDER SURFACE AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE
W AND NW, BUT AS THE COLUMN COOLS ALOFT AMIDST THE RESURGENCE OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, THE SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPS WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S. ACCORDING TO THE RAP-BASED
ANALYSIS, THE SURFACE WBZ HAS ALREADY REACHED THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE TRIAD. MUCH OF THE W PIEDMONT WILL SEE
THIS COLDER AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE, BUT IN AREAS N AND E OF THE
TRIANGLE, THE OVERLAP OF LOWERING SURFACE WET BULBS WITH
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE (INCLUDING UP INTO THE MIXED-PHASE
REGION) AND MAX LAYER LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF
WET SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, STARTING SOON AFTER 21Z AND EXPECTED TO
EXIT OUR NE COUNTIES BY 03Z. AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN EARLIER
DISCUSSIONS, THE SHORT WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP IN ANY GIVEN AREA
COMBINED WITH RECENT WARM GROUND TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION.
BUT WE MAY STILL SEE A SHORT BURST OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES, ESP IF
ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS PRESENT (NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE
RISING LAPSE RATES) AND IF OUR NE SECTIONS GET ON THE TAIL END OF
BANDED PRECIP. STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A DUSTING TO A
QUARTER INCH (THE PROBABILITIES OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE ARE 30-45%
NE OF OXFORD-TO-ROCKY MOUNT LINE) WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE (A 30-40% CHANCE IN PARTS OF GRANVILLE, VANCE, WARREN, AND
HALIFAX COUNTIES). THE THREAT OF ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
BY 06Z/1 AM, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER BUT WITH CONTINUED
BRISK WINDS.
WINDS: THE COOLING THERMAL COLUMN ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL INCREASE THE MIXED LAYER DEPTH AND HELP MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, PARTICULARLY AFTER SKIES CLEAR (AND WE'RE
ALREADY SEEING GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE FAR
W PIEDMONT). THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THIS EVENING
THROUGH MON, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25-
35 MPH COMMON, AND INFREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON MON.
AFTER CONSIDERATION OF A WIND ADVISORY, HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WHEN OUR SURFACE-BASED STABILITY SHOULD
TICK UPWARD. BUT WE MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MON, IF LATER
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EFFICIENT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH A VERY TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WE'LL ALSO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS AND THE LOW RH
IN THE 25-35% RANGE, BUT THIS RISK MAY BE OFFSET BY THE CHILLY
TEMPS, AS HIGHS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN THE 40S MON.
KEY MESSAGE 2... TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING THIS WEEK. TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON
THURSDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
HANGS ON AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
AS SUCH, TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A BROAD WAA REGIME.
MEANWHILE, A DEEPENING WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. A PERIOD
OF WEAK WAA-DRIVEN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTHWARD INTO VA, WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP FOCUSED ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY'S ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE IDEA THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO WHEN PRECIP WILL ARRIVE. FOR THE
TIME BEING WE'LL BRING POPS IN EARLY THURSDAY AND CARRY THEM THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING (STICKING CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS), ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THE RECENT DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS KEEP THURSDAY MOSTLY DRY
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. EITHER
WAY, IT SHOULD BE MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH
THIS EVENT, WITH PRECIP TIMING OF ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE THE BIGGEST
SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD.
HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 50S (NW) TO
MID 60S (SE). OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 715 PM SUNDAY...
TAF PERIOD: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE LAST OF
THE SHOWERS SWEEP EAST OF KRWI BY 02Z. THEN, THE GREATEST IMPACT IN
THE TAFS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL COME FROM THE WIND. SURFACE
WINDS 15-25 KT WILL GUST TO 35 KT, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD/LEINS
AVIATION...BADGETT/GREEN
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