792
FXUS62 KRAH 231701
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1200 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 119 AM MONDAY...
* MARGINAL FIRE CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 119 AM MONDAY...
1) ANOTHER BRISK DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES START THE
WEEK BELOW NORMAL BUT RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK. NEXT
SHOT OF RAIN COMES LATE WED NIGHT TO EARLY THU.
2) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 119 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ANOTHER BRISK DAY TO START THE WORK WEEK AMID
MARGINAL FIRE CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES START THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL BUT
RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK. NEXT SHOT OF RAIN COMES LATE
WED NIGHT TO EARLY THU.
ANOTHER BRISK DAY WILL START OUR WORK WEEK. THE DEPARTING AND
RAPIDLY DEEPENED SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LOW
OFFSHORE AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL US. GUSTS FROM THE NW
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 25-35 MPH. A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THIS WILL NOT BE THE NORM AS IT APPEARS DEEP
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PARTIALLY WEAKEN THE WINDS WITH
TIME OWING TO TURBULENT MIXING.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS DIPPING INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. THE LIMITING FACTORS TODAY WILL BE
COLDER HIGHS IN THE 40S AND RECENT 24-HR RAINFALL. BASED ON MRMS
DERIVED AND OBSERVED PRECIPITATION, MOST OF CENTRAL NC RECEIVED A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN, WHICH SHOULD ALLEVIATE MOST
FIRE CONCERNS TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
AND FAR SOUTHERN SANDHILLS TO SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE RAIN
AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. FIRE DANGER
APPEARS HIGHER HERE AND ACROSS WESTERN NC AND SOUTHEASTERN NC, WHERE
LITTLE TO NO RAIN OCCURRED. WE WILL REACH OUT TO NCFS THIS MORNING
REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL FIRE STATEMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S, SOME 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, WITH THE
COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN TONIGHT, BUT MAY STAY GUSTY AT 15-20 MPH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
VALUES CLOSE TO 60 AS RETURN FLOW SETS IN. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION COMES LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU AS A WARM FRONT
TIED TO A SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS.
RAIN AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT UNTIL LATER THU/FRI. REGARDLESS, IT COULD
ALSO BE GUSTY FROM THE SW WED IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
ALOFT, A S/W WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WITHIN
THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ON THU, AMPLIFYING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST THU NIGHT AND FRI. A
TRAILING S/W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST US FRI/SAT,
BUT ITS PROGRESSION THEREAFTER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS EARLY THU,
HOWEVER THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARYING WRT HOW THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES AS IT MOVES GENERALLY EWD THU/THU NIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE EWD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION THU
NIGHT/FRI, POSSIBLY STALLING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE CNTL APPALACHIANS AND MID-
ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SAT,
WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND ITS DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. FOR NOW, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WITH THE FROPA BETWEEN LATE THU
EVENING/NIGHT AND FRI AFT/EVE. ADDITIONALLY, THE 18Z GFS HAS A
STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH 40-50 KTS
AT 925 MB AND SOME 50-65+ KTS AT 850 MB. WHILE THERE IS A NEGLIGIBLE
AMOUNT OF CAPE OFF THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS, EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAXES
OUT IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED, IF IT WERE TO OCCUR THEN SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE. THE 925 MB WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY, THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND, WITH
NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 KT SUSTAINED AND 22-27 KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE ALL TAFS SHOW GUSTS COMING TO AN END LATE
THIS EVENING, THERE IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INDICATES GUSTS IN
THE TEENS COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTS WOULD NOT BE
AS STRONG AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY. CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS COULD REACH INT/GSO AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH OTHER TERMINALS DROPPING ON THURSDAY.
RAIN IS LIKELY IN ALL LOCATIONS WITH RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN FRIDAY. DRY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC/KREN
AVIATION...GREEN
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