928
FXUS62 KRAH 231902
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...
* MINIMAL CHANGES TO EXPECTED RAINFALL EVENT THU/THU NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
SOME MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER/FASTER SYSTEM, WHICH
WOULD MEAN LOWER TOTAL RAINFALL IN CENTRAL NC AND A SLIGHTLY
EARLIER RAIN ARRIVAL.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...
1) WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WED.
2) CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY THU/THU NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH NC. THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
FL LATE TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT, SETTING UP A BLUSTERY FLOW FROM THE
SW OVER CENTRAL NC FOR WED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. GUSTS IN OUR AREA ARE MOST LIKELY TO TOP OUT AT 20-25 MPH,
HOWEVER THE NBM DOES GIVE A 10% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WED,
WHILE THE EPS OUTPUT SUGGESTS EVEN HIGHER PROBABILITIES (60-80%) OF
30+ MPH GUSTS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. SUCH GUSTS WOULD NOT BE
PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS OVERALL, BUT MAY CAUSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS TO BE
BLOWN AROUND AND MAY PRESENT DIFFICULTIES FOR THOSE DRYING HIGH-
PROFILE VEHICLES.
KEY MESSAGE 2... CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY THU/THU NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH NC. THUNDER CHANCES ARE
LOW.
A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING INTO THE AREA EARLY WED IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE ACROSS NC OR VA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM OK/N TX
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES, SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY DRAW GULF-SOURCE MOISTURE INTO NC
STARTING LATE WED NIGHT. ALOFT, A BROAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUE WILL TRACK E OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED THROUGH THU. INCOMING MID LEVEL DPVA AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE AND HIGH PWS
(UP TO 250%-300% OF NORMAL) SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD A SLOWER AND STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND, AS A RESULT, HAD A LONGER DURATION OF MORE
MODERATE RAINFALL THU INTO FRI. SOME NEWER MODEL RUNS, HOWEVER, ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER GREAT LAKES WAVE, SO WE
MAY SEE PRECIP ARRIVING SOONER (WED NIGHT) AND PEAKING LATE THU INTO
THU NIGHT BEFORE EXITING OUR SE EARLY FRI. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN
INCH, HIGHEST IN THE NW (TRIAD) WHERE A LITTLE URBAN STREET FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IF THE RAIN COMES DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY MILD, ESP LOWS, WITH CLOUDS YIELDING A SMALLER-THAN-USUAL
DIURNAL RANGE. EVEN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE NO ARCTIC AIR
AVAILABLE, THUS DAILY AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMEST SAT/SUN.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY AT RDU/RWI/FAY, THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND, WITH
NORTHWEST WIND 10-15 KT SUSTAINED AND 22-27 KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE ALL TAFS SHOW GUSTS COMING TO AN END LATE
THIS EVENING, THERE IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INDICATES GUSTS IN
THE TEENS COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTS WOULD NOT BE
AS STRONG AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY. CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS COULD REACH INT/GSO AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH OTHER TERMINALS DROPPING ON THURSDAY.
RAIN IS LIKELY IN ALL LOCATIONS WITH RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN FRIDAY. DRY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...GREEN
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