879
FXUS62 KRAH 241140
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 134 AM TUESDAY...
* NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 134 AM TUESDAY...
1) TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MIDWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL LOW-END FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS WED WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH.
2) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 134 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY MIDWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL
LOW-END FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WED WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY WILL MIGRATE OFF THE SE US
COAST BY WED. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH 40S FOR HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS, WILL MODERATE ON WED
AND INTO THU WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S BY THU.
A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND CANADA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION WED. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 30-
KT, SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTS NEAR THE SURFACE OF 20-30 MPH, HIGHEST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL NC. IN THESE
REGIMES, EVEN THOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN, MODELS ARE TOO QUICK
TO BRING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. AS SUCH, WE EXPECT MOISTURE RECOVERY
TO BE SLOWER, BLENDING IN SOME OF THE DRIER GUIDANCE OF THE
HRRR/HREF. WITH THAT, RH MAY DIP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S IN THE
AFTERNOON WED. COMBINED WITH THESE GUSTS COULD WARRANT A LOW-END
FIRE DANGER. THE SOUTHERN AREA COORDINATION CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES
FIRE OUTLOOKS, CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MODERATE FIRE POTENTIAL OVER
ALL OF NC. THIS MAY BE TEMPERED BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS, LIMITING GUSTS,
AS WELL AS RECENT WET SOILS FROM RAIN. PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP WED
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED THU WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ALOFT, A S/W WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WITHIN
THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WED NIGHT/THU, AMPLIFYING THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, AND MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST US THU NIGHT AND FRI. A TRAILING S/W WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST US FRI AND SAT. A NORTHERN
STREAM S/W MAY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST US SAT
NIGHT SUN AS THE PARENT LOW TRACKS EWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND NRN
QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT/THU, WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARYING WRT HOW THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES, WITH THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A LOW TRACKING
EWD ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY WSW-ENE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE,
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC TO CNTL TX, ON THU. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WRT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENTLY ITS SWD/SEWD PROGRESSION THU
NIGHT/FRI, AS WELL AS WITH THE HIGH TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY, NORTHEAST, AND NRN MID-ATLANTIC. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE AREA BY FRI NIGHT, WHILE THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUES
TO RIDGE SWWD ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
US COAST BEFORE LIFTING NEWD OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER, STRONGER
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SWD ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS A
1040+ MB ARCTIC HIGH TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, THEN
CONTINUE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US MON/MON NIGHT. FOR NOW, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE WITH THE FROPA BETWEEN THU EVENING/NIGHT AND FRI AFT/EVE.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A NEGLIGIBLE AMOUNT OF CAPE OFF THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAXES OUT IN THE AROUND 20
KT RANGE. CHANCES FOR THUNDER REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THICKEN AND SPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. OTHERWISE, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD. THROUGH THE DAY, 6-10 KT WINDS
WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY. A 40-50KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTING TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING
A THREAT FOR LLWS.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION,
BRINGING RESTRICTIONS FROM RAIN AND POTENTIALLY LOW CEILINGS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KC/KREN
AVIATION...HELOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page