648
FXUS62 KRAH 250610
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN WILL EXIT OUR SE ON FRI.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...
1) WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE WED.
2) HIGH RAIN CHANCES LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH NC. THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE
WED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EASTWARD OFF THE FL COAST TONIGHT,
SETTING UP WAA AND A BLUSTERY SW FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC FOR WED AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. GUSTS IN OUR AREA ARE MOST
LIKELY TO TOP OUT AT 20-30 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING TAPS INTO THE EXITING LOW LEVEL JET, AND
LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF SW WINDS THROUGH THE BL.
THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE DOES REACH 30 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA, AND
THE HREF PROBABILITIES OF A 30+ MPH GUST IS OVER 40% MOST AREAS, SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SKEW TOWARD HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL. SUCH
GUSTS WOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS OVERALL, BUT MAY CAUSE
OUTDOOR OBJECTS TO BE BLOWN AROUND AND MAY PRESENT DIFFICULTIES FOR
THOSE DRYING HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES. REGARDING FIRE BEHAVIOR, WHILE
THESE WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT CONCERNING, THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP MIN RH LEVELS UNDER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, MAINLY 30-45%. THAT SAID, WILL MONITOR THIS
EXPECTED RH RECOVERY AND SURFACE FUEL CONDITIONS TO SEE IF ANY FIRE
WEATHER STATEMENTS MIGHT BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HIGH RAIN CHANCES LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH NC. THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN LOW.
A WARM FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING INTO THE AREA WED IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE
ACROSS NC OR S VA AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM OK/N TX
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES, SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY DRAW GULF-SOURCE MOISTURE INTO NC
STARTING WED NIGHT, WITH INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. ALOFT, A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/ST LAWRENCE/QUEBEC WED/THU, FOLLOWED BY A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE S PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST THU/FRI. THE INCOMING MID LEVEL DPVA (MOST ROBUST THU
INTO EARLY FRI) AND UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOIST UPGLIDE AND HIGH PWS (UP TO 200%-250% OF NORMAL) SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE CWA (MAINLY N HALF) WED EVENING, THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND BECOMING MORE STEADY, WITH CHANCES PEAKING THU INTO THU
EVENING. AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE EXITS AND WAITS FOR THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE, THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY HANG UP ACROSS SE NC WITH A PERSISTENT
STREAM OF HIGH PW (NEARING 300% OF NORMAL), SO HAVE HELD ONTO HIGH
CHANCE POPS S AND E OF THE TRIANGLE THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRI.
OVERALL STORM TOTAL RAIN SHOULD STILL BE AROUND 0.75-1.25", ALTHOUGH
TRAINING BANDS OF MORE MODERATE RAIN MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS. TEMPS THU-FRI WILL BE GENERALLY MILD, ESPECIALLY LOWS, WITH
CLOUDS YIELDING A SMALLER-THAN-USUAL DIURNAL RANGE. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE NO ARCTIC AIR AVAILABLE, THUS DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS SAT/SUN WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON OR TUE, WHICH WOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL, BUT MODEL SPREAD WITH THE LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT IS LARGE, REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS MON-TUE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 110 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
TONIGHT, A 45-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER CENTRAL NC, LEADING TO LLWS. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, THE
HIGHER WINDS SHOULD START TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, LEADING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS IN THE 20S KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. A FEW GUSTS OVER 30KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 06Z,
SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY, AS A COUPLE OF FRONTAL ZONES MERGE AND MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND A RISK OF MORNING DRIZZLE MAY THEN
LINGER INTO SAT, THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THAT TIME IS ONLY LOW-
MEDIUM.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...LH/MWS
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