701
FXUS62 KRAH 251908
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
208 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 222 AM WEDNESDAY...
* LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THURSDAY COULD APPROACH 2+ INCHES ALONG
THE US-64 CORRIDOR
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND TRENDING BELOW NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF WET WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 222 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY. THE WET WEATHER COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY SAT WITHIN A
POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD REGIME.
2) MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BRING A RETURN TO WET WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 222 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THE WET WEATHER COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY SAT WITHIN A POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD REGIME.
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN FULL SWING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC, THE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT TODAY, MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. FOR NOW, EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH
25-30 MPH, HIGHEST IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 200-PERCENT
OF NORMAL. ALOFT, WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MOIST UPGLIDE RIDING ATOP
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE JET ENHANCEMENT WITH
A JET STREAK OVER THE NC/VA AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST
FRONTAL WAVE COULD RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO 1.25
INCHES, JUST BASED ON THE LREF ENSEMBLE. HOWEVER, SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, DEPENDING ON WHERE BANDING MAY SET
UP. ALONG THESE SAME LINES ON THE HIGHER END, THE HREF IS PICKING UP
ON SOME LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG THE US-64 CORRIDOR UPWARDS
OF 2+ INCHES, LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE JET, DPVA, AND WEAK MUCAPE SEEN
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CONFIDENCE ON THIS HIGH-END SCENARIO IS NOT
GREAT, BUT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.
A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC THU NIGHT AND
EARLY FRI. THE TRACK OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM STILL VARIES AMONGST THE
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FRI, WHILE THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS KEEP
MOIST UPGLIDE OVER THE REGION FRI AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO EARLY
SAT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. IT WOULD APPEAR THE TREND IN THE LREF
IS FOR A WETTER FRI, PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS ALONG/EAST OF US-1, BUT
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS. IF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY,
AN IN-SITU CAD REGIME COULD SETUP FRI WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL IN THE
LOW/MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BRING A RETURN
TO WET WEATHER.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A POSSIBLE IN-SITU CAD REGIME SLOWLY ERODING
SAT, IT WOULD APPEAR MOST LREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A DRYING TREND
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY BY
SUN AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO RISE BENEATH DEVELOPING
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON SUN COULD APPROACH THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS AT LEAST BROAD CONSENSUS
THAT A SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY 1040-MB HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION MON THROUGH TUE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS,
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC PERHAPS BY EARLY MON AND SETTING UP A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO TUE. THERE IS STILL
A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE PATTERN, AND THUS TEMPERATURES,
BUT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES AND MACHINE-
LEARNING GUIDANCE THAT A FRONTAL WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ATOP THE COLD WEDGE. THIS COULD FAVOR A RETURN
TO CLOUDY/WET WEATHER LATE MON INTO WED, ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO SOON TO
DISCUSS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL
NC, WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST UP TO 20-25 KTS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING
AFTER DARK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET
RESULTING IN 35-45 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT, BUT SOME CONTINUED STIRRING AT
THE SURFACE WILL LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT (INCLUDING INT
AND GSO) BY AROUND 06Z, THEN DROPPING TO IFR SHORTLY AFTER THAT,
EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO LIFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FARTHER EAST
AT RDU AND RWI, CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR BY AROUND 07Z-09Z,
EVENTUALLY REACHING IFR IN THE MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS MAY NOT REACH
PLACES FARTHER SOUTH LIKE FAY UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM WEST TO EAST FROM AROUND 06Z-09Z AND
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOME MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES (BEST CHANCE AT INT AND GSO).
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AS A COUPLE OF FRONTAL ZONES MERGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND A RISK OF MORNING DRIZZLE
MAY THEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THAT
TIME IS ONLY LOW-MEDIUM. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN
AVIATION...DANCO/MWS
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