901
FXUS62 KRAH 260049
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
749 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...
* NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WERE NOTED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2+ INCHES SOMEWHERE ALONG THE US-64 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY.
2) ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOL AND WET WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
A SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG AND JUST OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE
CENTRAL NC IN THE REAR-RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH DIVERGENCE
INCREASING ALOFT WITH TIME THURSDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, VORTICITY
PERTURBATIONS UPSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC STARTING TONIGHT. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
BUT GET SLOWED BY THE APPALACHIANS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A SFC
TROUGH (MARKED BY WIND SHIFTS AND A BIT OF A DEW POINT/THETA-E
GRADIENT) WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY THURSDAY SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAIN. WITH TIME TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY, FORCING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND FROM THE MID-UPPER FORCING DISCUSSED EARLIER WILL
PRODUCE A GOOD SWATH OF RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. INITIAL PRECIPITATION TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WILL FOCUS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY (NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL
PLAIN) BEFORE SPREADING SSE WITH TIME AS THE BOUNDARY COLLAPSES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF HERE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE
AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH OF US EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDING MOST APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FRIDAY TO
OUR SOUTH IN SC/GA. HERE LOCALLY, A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF RAIN
MAY AMOUNT TO TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HREF/REFS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WEST-EAST TRAINING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE LPMM OUTPUT HAS SHOWN A CONSISTENT SWATH OF
1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT EAST TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN (WITH SOME LOCALIZED 2+ INCH AMOUNTS). GUIDANCE ONLY
REALLY SHOWS WEAK MUCAPE, IF ANY, AND AS SUCH ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WOULD LARGELY BE JET-DRIVEN BUT NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
REGARDLESS, GIVEN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, EVEN IF REALIZED THESE
AMOUNTS WOULD NOT LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS.
WARM SLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY COULD GUST A BIT THURSDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN/SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH, CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THERE SO NOT SURE
HOW MUCH MIXING WILL BE REALIZED BUT FORECAST SOUNDING MEAN LAYER
MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES INDICATE UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. ANY LINGER GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
LASTLY, AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, IF MORE
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED THAN GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS, THERE IS
A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR AND COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. THINK THIS IS MORE LIKELY
FURTHER INTO SC (HREF MINIMUM HELICITY SWATHS CLUSTER MORE-SO IN SC)
WHERE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHER. STILL, WANTED TO AT LEAST
MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY.
A MARGINAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS LIKELY THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH. WHILE A WEAK CAD SIGNAL SHOULD LOCK IN NELY FLOW FRIDAY, THE
SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SLIDE OFFSHORE RATHER QUICKLY, AND
WITH LESS RAIN TO PROMOTE IN-SITU CAD CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST,
NOT EXPECTING A CRAZY CLASSIC CAD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FRIDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY BUT SHOULD
KEEP ANY WEATHER TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOL AND WET WEATHER EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BUILDING
INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAD SIGNAL, WITH A NOTABLE GRADIENT MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN. BY TUESDAY, THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE,
THOUGH CAD INFLUENCE WILL PERSIST, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NW
TO MID/UPPER 50S SE.
MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM TX/LA THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY BUT SHOULD
BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND SCATTERED AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...
A FRONTAL ZONE, INITIALLY FOCUSED BETWEEN 2500-5000 FT AGL, WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM TN TO NC TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED INTENSE LIFT ALONG IT
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT AND EWD EXPANSION OF RAIN AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ALONG IT AND INTO CNTL NC TONIGHT-THU MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS, ONE WHICH PRODUCED A SECONDARY PEAK IN 20-30 KT
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE PIEDMONT IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO, WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LLWS UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAND OF RAIN ARRIVES OVER THE PIEDMONT AND RWI AND CAUSES LOW-LEVEL
JET WINDS TO DECELERATE THERE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL OTHERWISE
PROGRESS EWD AND PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OF RAIN AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS, INCLUDING AT FAY, WHERE LLWS WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT, THROUGH THE ONSET OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING
AND TURBULENT MIXING OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SURFACE BY
~14-15Z. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, INITIALLY FOCUSED ALOFT, WILL
DEVELOP DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY THU, WHICH
WILL BOTH MAINTAIN RAIN AND OVERCAST ON ITS COOL SIDE AND ALSO FAVOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
SETTLES SEWD AND ACROSS CNTL AND SERN NC THROUGH THU AFTERNOON-
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER OR DEVELOP AT FAY
THROUGH FRI-FRI NIGHT, WHILE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT-EARLY MORNING FOG AND
STRATUS OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT MORNING. ANOTHER CHANCE
OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/CA
AVIATION...MWS
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