903
FXUS62 KRAH 261144
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
* QPF HAS TRENDED LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS (NOW EXPECTED TO BE
0.50 SE TO 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES CENTRAL AND NORTH PIEDMONT
REGIONS).
* THE SURFACE WAVE PUSHES EAST THROUGH NC TODAY, WITH THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOTS OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NE FLOW.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
1) BENEFICIAL RAIN TODAY, LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG
TONIGHT, LOW CLOUDINESS FRIDAY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
3) THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE FINER
DETAILS REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: BENEFICIAL RAIN TODAY, LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY FOG TONIGHT, LOW CLOUDINESS FRIDAY.
RAIN HAS BEEN DEVELOPING/OVERSPREADING MUCH OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS POISED TO MOVE FROM TN EASTWARD
ACROSS NC TODAY. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH PIEDMONT. THE RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD
EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SE NC LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY, WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN,
MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE HREF/REFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY AS IT SAGS INTO CENTRAL NC.
HOWEVER, THE INSTABILITY IS LOW AND MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE
STRATIFORM AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STILL, THE WPC AND NBM
STILL SUGGEST MANY AREAS SHOULD COME OUT OF THE EVENT WITH 1 INCH
STORM TOTALS, WITH 1.25+ STILL POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NE
PIEDMONT. LOWER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AROUND AND SE OF FAYETTEVILLE
AND GOLDSBORO.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE WEST AND NORTH,
RANGING INTO THE 60S SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE STEADIER RAIN WILL
ARRIVE LATER.
THE WEATHER STORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LINGERING
LOW OVERCAST AND EVEN SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW WILL KEEP IT OVERCAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH ONLY SLOWLY
INCREASING CEILINGS FROM UNDER 1K FEET TO 3-5K FEET FOR MANY AREAS
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT,
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS, EVEN IN THE SE WHERE
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT THEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO INCREASE MAINLY INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 60S, INCREASING FURTHER ON SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DECREASE TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON SUNDAY NIGHT COLD AIR STARTS
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN AND A PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FINER DETAILS REMAINS.
ALOFT, A S/W WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT,
WITHIN A BROADENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS S/W AS IT CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS MON/MON NIGHT VARIES AMONGST THE
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, AS DOES THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
ADDITIONAL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES TRACKING EWD-ESEWD ALONG THE CANADA-
US BORDER MON AND TUE. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TRACK EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUN/SUN NIGHT, THEN ENEWD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST US AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MON/MON NIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE (POTENTIALLY BACKDOOR) COLD FRONT SLIDING SWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC SUN/SUN NIGHT, THIS HIGH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA AND
LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST MON NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH AND
PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE, AS WELL AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ON
EITHER SIDE OF IT (AND ITS POTENTIAL TO ERODE THE RIDGE), VARIES
AMONGST THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE. SHOULD THE S/W ALOFT BE MORE
AMPLIFIED AND THERE BE PRECIPITATION INTO THE COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE, CAD MAY TAKE HOLD AND STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION,
KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES LOWER.
THERE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MON/MON NIGHT, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE WINTRY IN NATURE AS THE COLD AIR CHASES THE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA MON NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE VA
BORDER. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES MON/MON NIGHT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. DECREASING
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS TUE AND WED.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY, THEN SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE RAIN BY 12Z-
15Z OVER THE PIEDMONT, REACHING THE KRWI AREA BY 15Z AND KFAY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT - WITH IFR TO LIFR
CIGS EXPECTED. VSBYS MAY LOWER AGAIN BELOW MVFR (MORE ON THAT IN
LATER FORECASTS).
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO A
GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN WILL RESULT IN COLD
AIR DAMMING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/KC/LH
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
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