297
FXUS62 KRAH 270015
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
* LOW PROBABILITY OF WINTRY MIX ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
1) BENEFICIAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH
STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR NORTH. CONTINUED DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN MAY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND.
2) LOW PROBABILITY OF WINTRY MIX MON INTO TUES MORNING, BUT
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... BENEFICIAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, WITH STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. PATCHY
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR NORTH. CONTINUED
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN MAY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM TN INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
CENTRAL VA, WITH A WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE FRONT
OVER FAR WESTERN NC. A SUBTLE BOUNDARY MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT AND
SMALL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRADIENT FROM THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS
ALSO BISECTING CENTRAL NC FROM SW TO NE. SE OF THE BOUNDARY, SW
WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND IT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAIN SHIFTING TO OUR SE ZONES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH INTO
OUR REGION. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THE 12Z HREF
DEPICTING 100-250 J/KG OF MUCAPE AT MOST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH. A HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWER AND/OR RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
NOT CONCERNED ABOUT A FLOODING THREAT EITHER GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS
BEEN AND RAIN RATES BEING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. STILL, THE MEAN
FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN SOME TRAINING, AND
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RATES. SO ISOLATED PONDING ON
ROADS IS POSSIBLE. ON AVERAGE, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.1-0.3" OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT TO 0.3-0.6" OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND
COASTAL PLAIN. BUT BASED ON THE HREF LPMM ALONG WITH QPF FROM
INDIVIDUAL HIGH-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND NAMNEST, LOCALIZED
STRIPES OF ADDITIONAL 1-1.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE. DECREASED TODAY'S
FORECAST HIGHS TO MID-50S TO LOWER-60S BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AS ALL
THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ARE KEEPING US ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION, PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT, AND SOME CLEARING COULD OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THUS HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE
THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG THERE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS GA/SC
MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME STEADIER LIGHT RAIN INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LEANED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR TONIGHT'S LOWS WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER, RANGING FROM LOWER-TO-
MID-40S IN THE FAR NORTH TO LOWER-50S IN THE FAR SOUTH.
POST-FRONTAL NELY FLOW WILL LOCK IN ON FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROMOTES CONTINUED CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR
ANY STEADIER RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE LOW WILL
PULL OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, ENDING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO ECLIPSE THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT POTENTIAL AREAS OF DENSE
FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.
THIS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S SATURDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LOW PROBABILITY OF WINTRY MIX MON INTO TUES
MORNING, BUT PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
A LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST SUN INTO MON AND STRONG CONFLUENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL FAVOR
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION, AND STRENGTHENING, OF A COLD ARCTIC SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST MON INTO TUES. THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE SC COAST BY
MON MORNING AND SET THE STAGE FOR A CLASSICAL CAD PATTERN OVER AT
LEAST THE MID-ATLANTIC.
DEVELOPING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE SHALLOW SLOPED LOW/MID-
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC,
BUT TIMING AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT IS
UNCERTAIN. THE EPS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE NORTHERN MOST SOLUTION
WITH PRECIPITATION DIRECTED OVER THE VIRGINIAS WHILE THE GEPS/GEFS
FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER INTO THE TRIANGLE. BEST
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
USING TOP-DOWN AND NOMOGRAM TECHNIQUES FOR EXPECTED P-TYPE, THE
OVERWHELMING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE 850-700MB LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN > 155DAM OVER NC AND LIKELY WILL NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, OR COLD RAIN. THE SURFACE WET-BULB
ZERO LINE AND STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE
PREDOMINANT P-TYPE OVER OUR AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, PREDICTABILITY IN
THESE VARIABLES REMAINS LOW FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME TO SAY MUCH
WITH ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY. OVERALL THE EVENT APPEARS TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF EVEN MINOR IMPACTS, AND A
VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT EVEN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ONLY RECEIVE
TRACE AMOUNTS OF COLD RAIN. EXPECT DETAILS TO BECOME CLEARER AS WE
APPROACH THE MEDIUM AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 715 PM THURSDAY...
AREAS OF MOSTLY IFR-MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO LIFR,
AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF FOG OVER THE PIEDMONT AND AT RWI,
TONIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO RESULT AREAWIDE,
WITH SOME STEADIER AND POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP NWD ACROSS SC AND SRN NC, INCLUDING OVER AND ESPECIALLY
JUST SOUTH OF FAY, FRI MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
THROUGH IFR FRI, TO MVFR OR BRIEFLY VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
OVER THE PIEDMONT. PERIODS OF RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE MEANWHILE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI AT FAY.
OUTLOOK: MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, AND
MAINLY A COLD RAIN IN COLD AIR DAMMING, EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JD/AS/NL
AVIATION...MWS
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