940
FXUS62 KRAH 270752
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
252 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 252 AM FRIDAY...
* AREAS OF FOG, THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 252 AM FRIDAY...
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
2) A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
3) SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 252 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AREAS OF FOG EARLY TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE VERY GLOOMY DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND
AREAS OF RAIN BEFORE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL. AREAS OF FOG
THIS MORNING WILL MOST LIKELY BE ALLEVIATED BY THE THICKENING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN ARRIVING THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS AREAS FROM CHARLOTTE TO FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH, THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE MAY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS THE TRIANGLE AREA
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER
DAY WITH VERY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S NE TO S.
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE TO SCOUR IT OUT QUICKLY.
ON A BRIGHTER NOTE, BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD
AND NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO RISE
INTO THE 60S, INCREASING FURTHER ON SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE AND A SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 40S SATURDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE TO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
ON SUNDAY NIGHT COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LOW PROBABILITY OF WINTRY MIX MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
A CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
AFTER A WARM WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE 20-25 DEGREES
FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE WIND BEGINS TO COME FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION TO THE WEDGE
OF COLD AIR, ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT THERE IS A LACK OF AGREEMENT FROM MODELS AS TO HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND. THE GFS/GEFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THE SYSTEM, BRINGING MORE
PRECIPITATION TO NORTH CAROLINA, WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS HAVE A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK, WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING TO THE
NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING NORTH CAROLINA. AS TO THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ALOFT TO MELT ANY FALLING SNOW, MEANING THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD
REACH THE GROUND AS SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, OR COLD RAIN. THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE OF GREATEST CONCERN AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH OVERALL
LIQUID AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3... SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE, THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE TEMPERATURE RISING AN ADDITIONAL FIVE DEGREES ON
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM FRIDAY...
AREAS OF MOSTLY IFR-MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO LIFR,
AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO RESULT AREAWIDE, WITH SOME
STEADIER RAIN THAT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NWD ACROSS SC AND SRN NC,
INCLUDING OVER AND ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH OF FAY, FRI MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH IFR FRI, TO MVFR OR BRIEFLY
VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OVER THE PIEDMONT. PERIODS OF RAIN
AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE MEANWHILE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRI AT FAY.
OUTLOOK: MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND SUN
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, AND
MAINLY A COLD RAIN IN COLD AIR DAMMING, EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/LH
AVIATION...BADGETT/MWS
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