246
FXUS62 KRAH 280538
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1239 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 107 PM FRIDAY...
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 107 PM FRIDAY...
1) CONTINUED LIGHT PATCHY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERCAST WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
2) LOW PROBABILITY OF WINTRY MIX MON INTO TUES MORNING IN THE
PIEDMONT, BUT PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 107 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CONTINUED LIGHT PATCHY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERCAST WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
THE SFC COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
COOLER, SATURATED NELY FLOW REMAINS LOCKED IN OVER CENTRAL NC. THE
STEADIER RAIN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THIS POINT
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF A LEAD VORTICITY PERTURBATION. THE STRONG
SHORT-WAVE/VORT MAX HAS DUG DEEP INTO GA/AL THIS AFTERNOON, LARGELY
DIRECTING CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH INTO FL. ANY LINGERING LIGHT
PATCHY DRIZZLE/RAIN OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH TIME THROUGH
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS LOWER TO MID
40S. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY LARGELY FROM
ELEVATED FOG (LOWERED STRATUS) WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE IN AREAS. BEST SIGNAL FOR DENSE FOG APPEARS TO POSSIBLY BE
IN THE FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS
MAY RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LOW PROBABILITY OF WINTRY MIX MON INTO TUES MORNING
IN THE PIEDMONT, BUT PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, AND AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
DEVELOPING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE SHALLOW SLOPED LOW/MID-
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, BUT TIMING AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE FEATURES (POSITION AND STRENGTH OF 925-
850MB WAA/FGEN). THE EPS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE NORTHERN MOST
SOLUTION WITH PRECIPITATION DIRECTED OVER THE VIRGINIAS, ALTHOUGH
ITS AIFS COUNTERPART HAS SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS
FROM 12Z THURS. THE GEPS/GEFS/AIGFS-ENSEMBLE REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH
AND PAINT HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF > 0.1" ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER.
BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR
INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
USING TOP-DOWN AND NOMOGRAM TECHNIQUES FOR EXPECTED P-TYPE, THE
OVERWHELMING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE 850-700MB LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN > 155DAM OVER NC AND LIKELY WILL NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, OR COLD RAIN. THE SURFACE WET-BULB
ZERO LINE AND STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE
PREDOMINANT P-TYPE OVER OUR AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, PREDICTABILITY IN
THESE VARIABLES REMAINS LOW FOR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME TO SAY MUCH
WITH ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH MOST
PLACES ONLY ACHIEVING TRACE AMOUNTS TO 0.05". LIGHT RAIN AND
CONVERSATIONAL ONSET OF SOME SLEET MON AFTERNOON/EVENING ENDS AS A
COLD LIGHT RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT
MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL EXPECTED.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO (5-10% CHANCE): ONSET OF PURE SLEET MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTS IN VERY LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATION (ABATED A
BIT BY WARM GROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS) TRANSITIONS TO
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER SUNSET WHEN SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IN THIS SCENARIO FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LESS EFFICIENT THAN A 1:1 RATIO SINCE AIR TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE > 28 DEGREES. MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR TUES
MORNING COMMUTE WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO A LIGHT/THIN GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND BRIDGES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1239 AM SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS (IFR TO LIFR) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z-15Z
TODAY BEFORE FINALLY SCOURING OUT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND SINKING AIR WILL BRING THE CLEARING SKIES.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SUN, VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED, BUT
SOME SUB-VFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.
STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS, LASTING INTO TUE. BRISK/GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NE ARE
POSSIBLE SUN EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MON MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/AS
AVIATION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
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