167
FXUS62 KRAH 280733
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
232 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 232 AM SATURDAY...
* SKIES CLEARING LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
1) LOW OVERCAST AND COOL WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. CLEARING
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
2) LOW PROBABILITY OF WINTRY MIX MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
PIEDMONT, BUT PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, AND AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... LOW OVERCAST AND COOL WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING. CLEARING LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUED ACROSS ALL THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH CONDITIONS SOCKED IN FROM GA AND SC ACROSS NC INTO
CENTRAL VA. THERE IS SOME FOG, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WERE REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES OR GREATER. IT WAS RATHER DAMP WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THESE DAMP AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND MID-MORNING BEFORE CLEARING WILL BEGIN FROM THE NW-N. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER AREA AND THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THEREFORE,
WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON SOME DRYING FROM ALOFT TO MIX DOWN FOR
CLEARING WITH LITTLE ADVECTION. STILL, EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY SCOUR AND LIFT OUT BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON.
THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON SUN.
READINGS SHOULD HIT 62-67 ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
THERE IS SOME FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE SIGNAL IS MUCH
WEAKER.
KEY MESSAGE 2... LOW PROBABILITY OF WINTRY MIX MON INTO TUES MORNING
IN THE PIEDMONT, BUT PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, AND AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED FORECAST-WISE SINCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, AND
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WRT TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES,
AMOUNTS AND TYPES. DEVELOPING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE
SHALLOW SLOPED LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, BUT TIMING AND SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF MESOSCALE FEATURES (POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF 925-850MB WAA/FGEN). THE EPS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE
NORTHERN MOST SOLUTION WITH PRECIPITATION DIRECTED OVER THE
VIRGINIAS. THE GEPS/GEFS/AIGFS-ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER, BUT HAS CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC, WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
THE SURFACE WET-BULB ZERO LINE AND STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE WILL
LIKELY DETERMINE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE OVER OUR AREA. UNFORTUNATELY,
PREDICTABILITY IN THESE VARIABLES REMAINS LOW FOR OUR AREA AT THIS
TIME TO SAY MUCH WITH ANY DEGREE OF CERTAINTY. LOOKING AT THE 00Z
GFS (WHICH IS THE WETTEST SOLUTION) FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NOMOGRAMS
TO ANALYZE POTENTIAL P-TYPES ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT, THE THERMAL
PROFILE MAY BRIEFLY SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX (INCLUDING SNOW) ALONG THE
VA BORDER MON AFT, BEFORE THE WARM NOSE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO
MELT ICE CRYSTALS FALLING THROUGH IT, EITHER PARTIALLY OR FULLY,
WHEN A PERIOD OF SLEET, RAIN, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION LATE MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORN, POSSIBLY HOVERING AROUND 32 DEG F, WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN THE MOST LIKELY P-TYPES THEN.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH MOST
PLACES ONLY ACHIEVING TRACE AMOUNTS TO 0.05". LIGHT RAIN AND
CONVERSATIONAL ONSET OF SOME SNOW/SLEET MON AFTERNOON/EVENING,
POSSIBLY BECOMING FREEZING RAIN FOR A BIT BEFORE ENDING AS A COLD
LIGHT RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGHOUT MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO (5-10% CHANCE): ONSET OF PURE SLEET MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTS IN VERY LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATION (ABATED A
BIT BY WARM GROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS) TRANSITIONS TO
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER SUNSET WHEN SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IN THIS SCENARIO FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LESS EFFICIENT THAN A 1:1 RATIO SINCE AIR TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE > 28 DEGREES. MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR TUES
MORNING COMMUTE WOULD BE POSSIBLE (AGAIN MAINLY ALONG THE VA BORDER)
DUE TO A LIGHT/THIN GLAZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND BRIDGES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1239 AM SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS (IFR TO LIFR) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z-15Z
TODAY BEFORE FINALLY SCOURING OUT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND SINKING AIR WILL BRING THE CLEARING SKIES.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SUN, VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED, BUT
SOME SUB-VFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.
STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS, LASTING INTO TUE. BRISK/GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NE ARE
POSSIBLE SUN EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST MON MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/KC
AVIATION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
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