485
FXUS62 KRAH 010604
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
105 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 700 PM SUNDAY...
* MONDAY'S SYSTEM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS MORE OF A COLD RAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX
REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-85.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 212 PM SATURDAY...
1) AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY
EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
2) PREDOMINANTLY COLD RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
BUT A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-85 CORRIDOR
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
3) WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARMTH
EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 212 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
NWLY SFC FLOW REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AS LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. AS CLOUDS SCATTER EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE UP INTO THE LOWER
60S THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR TONIGHT
WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED. SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE MID 40S TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, AREAS OF
DENSE FOG APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THESE AREAS INDICATE HOURLY TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
FORECASTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR DENSE
FOG ALSO PEAK IN THIS VICINITY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG.
ANY LINGERING FOG SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY ~14Z.
AFTER A WARM AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SSWLY FLOW, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUNDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
MAY ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE, WITH SHOWER CHANCES HIGHEST ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPWARDS OF 500
J/KG OF SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS SUCH, CAN'T RULE OUT
A CRACK OF THUNDER SUNDAY EVENING. LASTLY, POST-FRONTAL GUSTS OF UP
TO 25+ MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LINGERING SOME INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PREDOMINANTLY COLD RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE NORTH
OF I-85 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
DEVELOPING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE SHALLOW SLOPED LOW/MID-
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE EPS/AIFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE
NORTHERN MOST SOLUTIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION SWATH DIRECTED OVER
THE VIRGINIAS. CONVERSELY, THE GEPS/GEFS/AIGFS-ENSEMBLE REMAIN
FARTHER SOUTH AND PAINT HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF > 0.1" FROM THE
NC/VA BORDER INTO CENTRAL VA. BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIP
(LIQUID EQUIVALENT) WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85
CORRIDOR INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
USING TOP-DOWN AND NOMOGRAM TECHNIQUES FOR EXPECTED P-TYPE, THE
OVERWHELMING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE 850-700MB LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN > 155DAM OVER NC AND LIKELY WILL NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, OR COLD RAIN. THE SURFACE WET-BULB
ZERO LINE AND STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE WILL LIKELY DETERMINE
PREDOMINANT P-TYPE OVER OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE
TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS, AND SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS, WILL REMAIN IN THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH MUCH MORE MARGINAL DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL BE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE
FOR ANY IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR AREA.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH MOST
PLACES ONLY ACHIEVING TRACE AMOUNTS TO 0.1". LIGHT RAIN AND
CONVERSATIONAL ONSET OF SOME SLEET MON AFTERNOON/EVENING ENDS AS A
COLD LIGHT RAIN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT
MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL EXPECTED.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO (5-10% CHANCE): A PERIOD OF PURE SLEET MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MAY RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
SLEET ACCUMULATION (UNLIKELY TO ACCUMULATED ON ROADWAYS DUE TO WARM
GROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS) TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AFTER SUNSET WHEN SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPS MAY DROP
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IN THIS SCENARIO FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LESS EFFICIENT THAN A 1:1 RATIO SINCE AIR TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE > 28 DEGREES. MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR TUES
MORNING COMMUTE WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO A LIGHT/THIN GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND BRIDGES. SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES, ONLY A COLD RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SURFACE TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 3... WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EAST COAST BY MIDWEEK, BUT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 500MB OF THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL FAVOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME, HIGHS
ECLIPSING 80 DEGREES BECOME LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE
SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS PRIMARILY TO INDIVIDUALS
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION. PLEASE
SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DAILY RECORDS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 105 AM SUNDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD:
FOG IS GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS, WITH JUST SOME LOCALIZED FOG ELSEWHERE. IT IS RADIATION
FOG, THUS ANY FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY MID-MORNING, FOLLOWED BY VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA
FROM N-NE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BECOMING GUSTY TO 20KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, THROUGH THEY MAY NOT MATERIALIZE
UNTIL AFTER 03Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z MON: SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 1:
KGSO: 77/2012
MARCH 6:
KGSO: 78/2022
KRDU: 82/1967
KFAY: 86/1918
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 6:
KGSO: 64/1967
KRDU: 64/1967
KFAY: 65/1961
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/AS
AVIATION...BADGETT
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