426
FXUS62 KRAH 011140
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
* UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY DISCUSSION WITH LOOK AT
LATEST EC GUIDANCE. EC ALSO SUPPORTS LITTLE ICING POTENTIAL FAR
NORTH.
* SPOTTY AND LOCALIZED FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH WARMER THIS
AFTERNOON.
* THE SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARD ONLY SOME LIGHT RAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 333 AM SUNDAY...
1) A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NE TO 25 MPH JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS.
2) A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LOW OVERCAST, LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND MISERABLE MID 30S
RETURN.
3) WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARMTH
EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 333 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
VERY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NE TO
25 MPH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE FOG THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOCALIZED TO LOW-LYING
AND FOG PRONE AREAS. IT IS CLEAR AND THE WINDS ARE LIGHT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FOG, SOME MAY BE
LESS THAN 1/4 MILE FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF WARM SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL WARM QUICKLY AND REACH THE UPPER 60S NE AND
WELL INTO THE 70S ELSEWHERE. THE WARMING WILL BE AIDED BY A DRYING
DOWNSLOPE BREEZE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWER ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE PUSHED BY A 1035+ MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES STATES EAST TO
NY TONIGHT. CAA WITH THE NE FLOW TONIGHT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
TUMBLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOW OVERCAST, LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
MISERABLE MID 30S RETURN.
THE LARGE AND STRONG (NEARLY 1040 MB) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
VERY PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL EXTEND SW ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE COLDEST AND DRIEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
BE DELIVERED DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE HIGH. A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS FROM THE OH VALLEY EARLY MONDAY, THEN WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT A TOP THE SHALLOW SLOPED LOW/MID-LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A GENERAL LIGHT (0.01 TO 0.15) OF RAINFALL DURING MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT (HIGHEST TO THE NORTH). THE GFS HAS BEEN LEADING THE WAY WITH
A PERSISTENT SIGNAL OF SOME QPF, WITH THE NAM JUST CATCHING ON.
THEREFORE, POP HAS COME UP SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS
ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE IN SOME LIGHT RAIN.
AS FOR THE P-TYPE, THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS PARTIAL
THICKNESSES IN THE COLD NOSE CENTERED FROM ROXBORO TO GREENSBORO (OF
1555+ M IN THE 850-700 LAYER AND 1300-1310+ IN THE 1000/850 LAYER BY
00Z/TUE. THE 1000/850 THICKNESSES RISE INTO THE 1310-1320 BY 00Z-
06Z/TUE, THEN 1320S TUESDAY). JUST A BIT TOO WARM ALOFT, AND
POTENTIALLY MARGINAL (1300-1305M) FOR SOME RAIN/ICING MIX - AROUND
DUSK MONDAY - BUT TRENDING WARMER OVERNIGHT -
REFERRING TO THE WET BULB ZERO FORECASTS, NOT SURPRISINGLY MOST
GUIDANCE WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS DEPICT SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES
33-35 NORTH AND 35-38 SOUTH DURING THE CRITICAL TIME OF LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN WE SHOULD BE PRECIPITATING LIGHTLY.
ALL THIS DATA ESSENTIALLY SUPPORTS RAIN WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIX NEAR THE VA BORDER AREA EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. AND, THAT REALLY IS IF THE WET BULBS CAN FALL TO BELOW
32, WHICH IF IT OCCURS SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED TO OUR FAR NORTH AND
TO THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT ROAD AND
GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WITH THE HEAT TODAY (AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE LIGHT RAIN AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH BY LATE MONDAY, BOTTOMING OUT 33 TO 40
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. QPF GENERALLY 0.10 TO 0.25 NORTH OF THE
TRIAD TO LESS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO (10% CHANCE): THE SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 31-32 RANGE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE LIGHT RAIN, ALLOWING FOR SOME VERY LIGHT ICING
(FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE) ON ELEVATED SURFACES A SLICK BRIDGE OR
OVERPASS COULD THEN RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE 3... WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EAST COAST BY MIDWEEK, BUT WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER OF
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 500MB OF THE
TROPOSPHERE WILL FAVOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME, HIGHS
ECLIPSING 80 DEGREES BECOME LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE
SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WOULD
LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS PRIMARILY TO INDIVIDUALS
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION. PLEASE
SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DAILY RECORDS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 640 AM SUNDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD:
FOG IS GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS THE AND SANDHILLS, WITH JUST SOME
LOCALIZED FOG ELSEWHERE. IT IS RADIATION FOG, THUS ANY FOG SHOULD BE
GONE BY MID-MORNING, FOLLOWED BY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT
WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM N THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOMING GUSTY TO
20-25 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT, THROUGH THEY MAY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL AFTER 03Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z MON: SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLE IN A VERY WARM AND MOIST PERIOD FOR EARLY MARCH.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 6:
KGSO: 78/2022
KRDU: 82/1967
KFAY: 86/1918
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 6:
KGSO: 64/1967
KRDU: 64/1967
KFAY: 65/1961
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/LUCHETTI/AS
AVIATION...BADGETT
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