413
FXUS62 KRAH 151806
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
206 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 256 AM SUNDAY...
* THE SEVERE RISK ON MONDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK
(HIGHER COVERAGE THAN USUAL AND WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE, EG. EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADO AND 75 MPH OR
GREATER GUSTS), WITH TIMING OF GREATEST RISK BETWEEN 10A-7P.
RESIDENTS SHOULD ACT THIS WEEKEND TO IMPLEMENT THEIR SEVERE
WEATHER PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND ENSURE MEANS TO RECEIVE SEVERE
WEATHER ALERTS. MORE INFO AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RAH/SEVEREPREP
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 256 AM SUNDAY...
1) MARGINAL RISK (LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE) FOR SHALLOW,
ROTATING CELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP/TORNADO OR STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
2) MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY (HIGHER COVERAGE THAN
USUAL AND WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE, EG. EF2 OR
STRONGER TORNADO AND 75 MPH OR GREATER GUSTS), WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MIXED MODE (DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS
AHEAD OF A QLCS WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND CORRIDORS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND AND/OR MESOVORTEX TORNADOES)
AND WITH TIMING OF GREATEST RISK BETWEEN 10A-7P.
3) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NC, WITH HIGHS RUNNING 15–20 DEGREES
BELOW MID-MARCH AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 256 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MARGINAL RISK (LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE) FOR
SHALLOW, ROTATING CELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP/TORNADO OR
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTED A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT. FURTHER SOUTH,
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION OFF
THE FLORIDA/GA COASTLINE EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUME OF HIGHER PWAT AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH TIME, THIS PLUME OF RICHER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE MOVING NORTH AND DECAYING LATER
TONIGHT. THE LOW-END THREAT FOR MINI SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED
ISOLATED WIND/TORNADO THREAT DETAILED BELOW IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES AND CNTL AB/SK, RESPECTIVELY, WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY-
PHASED AS THEY AMPLIFY A SYNOPTIC TROUGH SHARPLY ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY SUN-SUN NIGHT. STANDARDIZED 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE NEGATIVE 4-5 SIGMA OVER THE
LWR/MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z MON. PRECEDING HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRENGTHENING LWR/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RESULT DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE ERN US, INCLUDING INTO CNTL NC
LATE SUN AND PARTICULARLY SUN NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, A ~1022 MB HIGH NOW OVER ERN NC WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY
A STRONGER ONE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM ~1025 MB OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON TO 1030-1035 MB OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND NRN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY SUN, WHILE EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS
THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC PIEDMONT. A WARM FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND RETREAT NWWD ACROSS CNTL NC, WHERE
ELY/SELY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MODIFICATION OF THE ANTECEDENT
CONTINENTAL/DRY AIRMASS AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT RECOVERY INTO THE
50S F SUN AFTERNOON. RICHER, MORE-MARITIME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, ALONG
A SEPARATE FRONTAL ZONE NOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND CNTL
FL PENINSULA, WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWD AND ACROSS THE SRN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING, IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS/LOW-LEVEL
JET.
GIVEN THE ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY COINCIDENT WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING, INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE SRN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS; AND POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TO VARYING DEGREES DEPICT A WARM/DRY LAYER BASED AROUND
700-800 MB. AS SUCH, ANY CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THAT ENVIRONMENT,
PROBABLY INVOF THE WARM FRONT, WILL BE SHALLOW BUT MODESTLY SHEARED
AMID VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THAT LAYER, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CONDITIONAL RISK OF AT LEAST TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP/TORNADO.
THE LATTER RISK WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TOWARD EVENING, AS LCLS LOWER
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
YIELD STRONGER SRH. AS CELLS PROGRESS NWWD ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
THROUGH EVENING, THEY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AND/OR
WEAKEN, THROUGH ASSOCIATED RAIN MAY BRIEFLY DIABATICALLY-STRENGTHEN/
REINFORCE THE (WEDGE) FRONT AS IT SLOWS OVER W-CNTL NC/VA.
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL, LOW PROBABILITY/RISKS OF SEVERE WILL EXIST
THROUGH MON MORNING FROM 1) SCATTERED CELLS MOVING ONSHORE OVER
SERN/ERN NC AND INTO THE VICINITY OF RAH'S SRN-CNTL COASTAL PLAIN AND
2) WITH A RISK OF OTHER SCATTERED CELLS MORE-BROADLY THROUGHOUT CNTL
NC, AMID WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT. EACH REGIME WOULD POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY (HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN USUAL AND WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE, EG. EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADO AND 75 MPH OR GREATER GUSTS),
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIXED MODE (DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WITH ALL HAZARDS AHEAD OF A QLCS WITH WIDESPREAD STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CORRIDORS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND AND/OR
MESOVORTEX TORNADOES) AND WITH TIMING OF GREATEST RISK BETWEEN 10A-
7P.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH PRETTY STEADY MODEL PROGS OVER LAST SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES, SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MODERATE
RISK DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY A 60% SIG WIND, ALTHOUGH STRONG TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE DETAILED
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW INCLUDING POTENTIAL SEVERE HAZARDS AND
TIMING REMAIN VALID AT THIS JUNCTURE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AN INTENSE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL PIVOT AND LIFT ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC MON-MON NIGHT. STRONG,
50-150 METER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL RESULT ACROSS CNTL NC
(STRONGEST NW) THROUGH MON EVENING, DURING WHICH TIME MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 100 KTS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
INTENSE (~125 KT), 500 MB SPEED MAX.
AT THE SURFACE, A QLCS WILL LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z MON NEAR THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS, ALONG OR PROBABLY SLIGHTLY PRECEDING A
STRONG, POLAR FRONT. AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT FROM
THE QLCS; AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS THE WRN BOUND OF
SEVERE RISK, WITH WEAKER CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE SYNOPTIC,
POLAR/COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING. TIMING OF THE QLCS WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGEST DIURNAL HEATING FROM THE ERN PIEDMONT EWD,
AND ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN (I-95 CORRIDOR). WIDESPREAD,
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY RESULT ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE QLCS, WITH CORRIDORS OF 55-75 MPH AND LOCALLY >75 MPH
IN EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR MESOVORTICES. THE LATTER WILL
ALSO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES, A COUPLE OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. THERE IS A LOWER PREDICTABILITY FOR DISCRETE OR
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE QLCS AND EFFECTIVE AND
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONTS, ALSO FAVORED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC/VA.
SHOULD SOME OCCUR, THEY WOULD POSE A RISK OF ALL HAZARDS, INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL AND ALSO A RISK OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.
IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER BEHIND THE POLAR FRONT MON EVENING-
NIGHT, WITH CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE UPR 20S-MID 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 3... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NC, WITH HIGHS
RUNNING 15–20 DEGREES BELOW MID-MARCH AVERAGES.
IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY’S COLD FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REINFORCE COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
MID-MARCH CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH EARLY MORNING
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WITH SOME COOLER SPOTS IN NW THE LOW 20S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20S KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
THIS EVENING, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS INCREASES OVERNIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY INTO MON MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO, HOWEVER THE GREATER CHANCES FOR THAT WILL BE WITH THE LINE
OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH TIMING OF THE LINE REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR TO IFR
CIGS POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WITH 35-40 KTS AROUND 2KFT,
BUT WITH CONTINUED WINDS OF 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TOWARD
DAYBREAK MON, HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG (SEVERE WITH THE STRONGEST OF
STORMS) GUSTY WINDS AND THE USUAL CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS WHERE STORMS
IMPACT A TERMINAL. ALL MANNER OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS ON MONDAY, INCLUDING TORNADOES AND GUSTS OF 60-80 MPH OR
GREATER. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG, WITH
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MON EVE, WITH
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/MWS/CA
AVIATION...10
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