535
FXUS62 KRAH 160606
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 205 AM MONDAY...
THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE RECENT 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 430 PM SUNDAY...
1) MARGINAL RISK (LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE) FOR SHALLOW,
ROTATING CELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP/TORNADO OR STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
2) THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY, SOME
SIGNIFICANT (EG. EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADO AND 75 MPH OR GREATER
GUSTS), HIGHLIGHTED WITH A LEVEL 4 OF 5 MODERATE RISK.
3) WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR AWAY FROM STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MON AND MAY BRIEFLY MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 40-50 MPH
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BOTH FOCUS SOME OF THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS AND ALSO SERVE AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT, AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
4 COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NC, WITH HIGHS RUNNING 15–20 DEGREES
BELOW MID-MARCH AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 430 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MARGINAL RISK (LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE) FOR
SHALLOW, ROTATING CELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP/TORNADO OR
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
ALOFT, A S/W WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER S/W WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AS OF 18Z THE ~1032 MB HIGH OFF NEW
ENGLAND WAS RIDGING SWWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS, WITH
THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME
SELY ACROSS CENTRAL NC, WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS STILL LIMITED, BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT.
THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT, FROM 30-40 KTS THIS EVE TO
40-50 KTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORN. THE 6 KM BULK SHEAR IS 30-40
KTS, BUT MLCAPE REMAINS LIMITED (LESS THAN 400 J/KG, FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WITH MLCIN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC). EXPECT INSTABILITY
TO INCREASE NWWD INTO THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED
6KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LCLS DROPPING TO
100-500M. THE BIGGEST QUESTION PARAMETER-WISE WILL BE THE CAPE/CIN.
GIVEN THE ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY COINCIDENT WITH
HEATING THIS AFT, INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE SRN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHILE SHOWERS ARE LIFTING INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SRN COASTAL PLAIN,
THE DEEPER CONVECTION REMAINS WELL OFF THE SC COAST. THERE IS STILL
A CONDITIONAL RISK OF AT LEAST TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP/TORNADO.
THE LATTER RISK WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TOWARD EVENING, AS LCLS LOWER
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING, AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
YIELD STRONGER SRH. AS CELLS PROGRESS NWWD ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT
THROUGH EVENING, THEY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AND/OR
WEAKEN, THOUGH ASSOCIATED RAIN MAY BRIEFLY DIABATICALLY-
STRENGTHEN/REINFORCE THE (WEDGE) FRONT AS IT SLOWS OVER W-CNTL
NC/VA. AS EARLIER DISCUSSIONS NOTED, LOW PROBABILITY/RISKS OF SEVERE
WILL EXIST THROUGH MON MORNING FROM SCATTERED CELLS MOVING ONSHORE
OVER SERN/ERN NC AND INTO THE SRN-CNTL COASTAL PLAIN, AS WELL AS
OTHER SCATTERED CELLS MORE-BROADLY THROUGHOUT CNTL NC, AMID
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION, BOTH OF WHICH WOULD POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
MONDAY, SOME SIGNIFICANT (EG. EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADO AND 75 MPH OR
GREATER GUSTS), HIGHLIGHTED WITH A LEVEL 4 OF 5 MODERATE RISK.
A BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/
MERIDIONAL SYNOPTIC TROUGH, WILL ASSUME NEGATIVE TILT WHILE PIVOTING
AND LIFTING RAPIDLY FROM THE LWR MS VALLEY TO LWR GREAT LAKES FROM
12Z MON TO 12Z TUE. PRECEDING HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING LWR/MID-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RESULT DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
CNTL NC (STRONGEST NW) THROUGH THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING MON, WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A POWERFUL, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED JET STREAK. IN
ADDITION TO RELATED STRONG DYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS WITH THOSE
DEVELOPMENTS, THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM FORECAST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, HYSPLIT BACK TRAJECTORIES, AND UPSTREAM OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS, THAT A RESIDUAL ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL HAVE BEEN ADVECTED NEWD AND ACROSS CNTL NC BY LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY MON.
AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG POLAR FRONT, EXTENDING AT 12Z MON FROM ERN
OH SSWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND FL PANHANDLE, WILL SWEEP
EWD AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH 12Z TUE. A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE FRONT, FROM AN UPSTREAM QLCS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, MAY SLIGHTLY OUTPACE THE POLAR, SYNOPTIC ONE.
AS OFTEN OCCURS, THE SYNOPTIC FRONT MAY FRACTURE, WITH THE NRN
PORTION SLOWED BY THE CNTL APPALACHIANS AND THE SRN PORTION,
UNIMPEDED AROUND THE SRN APPALACHIANS, LIKELY TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY
AND ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. A TRIPLE POINT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THAT SRN FRONTAL SEGMENT
AND TRACK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND VA, WHERE
ISALLOBARIC FORCING, CONVERGENCE, AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY MAXIMIZE
AND FOCUS A REGIONAL MAXIMUM IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THERE MAY BE AN EARLY DAY, ONGOING SEVERE RISK FROM OVERNIGHT-EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION, AMID A REGIME OF STRENGTHENING, WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT OF 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS CNTL
NC, AND BENEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT. A
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS WILL
RESULT.
THE SEVERE RISK WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
AS THE STRONGER FORCING AND FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREAD A DESTABILIZING
WARM/MOIST SECTOR OVER CNTL NC, WHERE A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING INTO-THROUGH THE 70S F AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE LWR 60S F SHOULD YIELD 750-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
STRONG TO EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR ELONGATED, AND CLOCKWISE-
CURVED HODOGRAPHS, WITH THE LATTER FAVORED AND MAXIMIZED WHERE
SURFACE FLOW MAY BACK TO SSELY/SELY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE FALLS RELATED TO THE APPROACHING FRONT AND POSSIBLE TRIPLE
POINT. WHILE THAT PARAMETER SPACE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED,
PROBABLY MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHICH MODE MAY
BE DOMINANT. DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE MODES WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS
WITH ALL HAZARDS (INCLUDING LARGE HAIL WITH TORNADOES, POSSIBLY
STRONG, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS) VERSUS A QLCS WITH LITTLE TO NO
HAIL AND INSTEAD WIDESPREAD STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
SWATHS/CORRIDORS OF SIGNIFICANT WIND AND/OR MESOVORTEX TORNADOES.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO MODES, WITH A
DOMINANCE THAT MAY NOT BECOME APPARENT UNTIL MON MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3... WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR AWAY
FROM STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MAY BRIEFLY MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 40-
50 MPH IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BOTH FOCUS SOME
OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS AND ALSO SERVE AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALREADY STRONG AND GUSTY, BACKGROUND GRADIENT WINDS MAY BE BRIEFLY
ENHANCED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE PRESSURE TROUGH/PRESSURE FALL
CORRIDOR ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT, AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND BOTH FOCUSES SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS AND
ALSO SERVES AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 4.. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NC, WITH HIGHS
RUNNING 15–20 DEGREES BELOW MID-MARCH AVERAGES.
IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY’S COLD FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REINFORCE COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
MID-MARCH CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, WHICH IS ROUGHLY 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH EARLY MORNING
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S. TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WITH SOME COOLER SPOTS IN NW THE LOW 20S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 205 AM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS OF AROUND 1-1.5KFT WILL
TRANSITION TO IFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AS CIGS LOWER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES. STRONG WINDS OF 40-50KTS
AT 1-2KFT WILL RESULT IN SOME LLWS CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SPOTTY BY DAYBREAK AS MIXING RESULTS IN GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS, NEGATING THE LLWS.
A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE TRIAD AREA BETWEEN 14 AND
19Z, THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 15 AND 20Z AND THE REST OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 18 AND 23Z. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND POSSIBLE A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION,
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG GUSTING TO 35 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST AND CLEAR ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY 22 TO 02Z.
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME VFR CIGS AT AROUND 6KFT ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. -BLAES
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS/10
AVIATION...BLAES
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