827
FXUS62 KRAH 161053
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...
* THE AVIATION FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE RECENT 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
* MINOR TWEAKS TO LOWER LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL TODAY, BUT
OTHERWISE THE EXPECTED SEVERE HAZARDS, AND THEIR SEVERITY,
REMAIN UNCHANGED. SEVERE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS
REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
* LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AS
LOW AS 12 TO 16 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...
1) THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY,
SOME SIGNIFICANT (EG. EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADO AND 75 MPH OR
GREATER GUSTS), HIGHLIGHTED WITH A LEVEL 4 OF 5 MODERATE RISK.
2) WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR AWAY FROM STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MAY BRIEFLY MAXIMIZE BETWEEN 40-50 MPH
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
3) COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NC, WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AS MUCH AS 15–20 DEGREES BELOW MID-MARCH
AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY, SOME SIGNIFICANT (EG. EF2 OR STRONGER TORNADO
AND 75 MPH OR GREATER GUSTS), HIGHLIGHTED WITH A LEVEL 4 OF 5
MODERATE RISK.
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE
BASAL PORTION OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
THROUGH MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PROCESS WILL PROVIDE A
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK TO 75 TO
125 KTS AS IT NEGATIVELY TILTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A LEAD PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING QLCS OVER THE OH/TN
VALLEY'S THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY PERTURBED AND
MOIST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACT TO TRIGGER AND FOCUS ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
THIS MORNING: HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL REMAIN SURFACE-BASED INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AS IT PROGRESSES INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH
STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM AND SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS,
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND QUICK SPIN UP
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ANY
BOWING SEGMENTS AND LINE BREAKS. FARTHER TO THE EAST (EASTERN
PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND COASTAL PLAIN), SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
WEAKLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE AREA FROM 13-15Z AS PWAT VALUES OF > 1.5" AND
500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SURGE INTO THIS REGION. MESSY CONVECTIVE
MODE IS EXPECTED GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF STORM INTERACTIONS
AND INITIALLY WEAKER SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KTS. DEEPER CORES MAY
STILL BRING DOWN STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME
HAIL AS WELL, ESPECIALLY WITH WEAKLY COUNTER-CLOCKWISE BACKING
ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF LEFT-MOVING CELLS.
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING: ** THIS WILL BE THE
MAIN WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND WHEN LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS MAY DEVELOP.** AS WE APPROACH NOON, CONTINUED
WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WITHIN 500-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, HIGHEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN, AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 60
KTS. DURING THIS TIME, UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME STRONGER AND MORE
ORGANIZED AND PROMOTE A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
SOME LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT (GREATER THAN 75 MPH), AND TORNADOES.
STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF ANY TORNADOS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE. WITH SO MANY STORMS, LINEAR MODE
APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS IN THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE OF LINE BREAKS AND SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR, FAVORABLE LOOPING, LOW- LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
AND A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY WOULD SUPPORT
LONGER LIVED TORNADIC CELLS WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO DAMAGE (EF-2+) AND POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED
IN NATURE AS LONG AS ITS INFLOW CAN REMAIN CLEAR OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. IN THE ABSENCE OF THESE DISCRETE CELLS, STRONG
MOMENTUM ALOFT MAY BE EASILY TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE FROM ANY
MODERATE DOWNDRAFT AND SUPPORT SEVERE WIND GUST WITH
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS MOST PROBABLE IN LOCALLY BOWING SEGMENTS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING: THE PRIMARY SEVERE
HAZARD AND WHERE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST PROBABLE, IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM THE SKY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYNOPTIC FRONT (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2 BELOW ON ENHANCED
GRADIENT WIND POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD). HI-RES
GUIDANCE NICELY DEPICTS A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND WHICH
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH CAA AND
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 50 MPH FROM CAA ALONE MAY BE POSSIBLE. MIXED CHARACTER
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA AFTER ROUGHLY 9-11 PM. DEPENDENT ON IF INSTABILITY CAN
REDEVELOP ALONG THE AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT, AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SEVERE TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT STORMS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE, WITH ACCOMPANYING HAZARDS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
QUICK SPIN UP TORNADOES AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR
AWAY FROM STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MAY BRIEFLY MAXIMIZE
BETWEEN 40-50 MPH IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OF THE DAY, A BRIEF
LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENING IS MOST POSSIBLE WITH SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT AND ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
PROBABLE. DURING THIS TIME AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY AND MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH AROUND THE FRONTAL-PASSAGE. A WIND
ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED, BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
INSTABILITY AND THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH THIS THREAT LIKELY TO
BE HANDLED WITH CONVECTIVE PRODUCTS (SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS). IF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SCOURS OUT ANY INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION APPEARS
UNLIKELY ALONG THE FRONT, A SHORT-FUSED WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3... COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NC,
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AS MUCH AS 15–20 DEGREES BELOW MID-
MARCH AVERAGES.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, THE REGION WILL
RETURN TO A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS CHILLY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL START MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR STARTS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION, DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES BACK TO OR
BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BELOW NBM GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 1275 TO 1285M RANGE SUPPORTING LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S WHICH IS ABOUT 12 TO 16 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. LOWS WILL MODERATE A BIT INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
ON THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
BACK NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS OF AROUND 1-1.5KFT MIXED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS AT
TIMES. STRONG WINDS OF 40-50KTS AT 1-2KFT WILL RESULT IN SOME LLWS
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT OR TWO BEFORE MIXING DEVELOPS AND REMOVES
THE LLWS.
A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH MID
MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST. A MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE TRIAD AREA BETWEEN 15 AND 20Z, THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 16 AND 22Z
AND THE REST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 18 AND 23Z. THESE STORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND POSSIBLY A
FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG
GUSTING TO 35 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND CLEAR ALL OF
CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21 TO 02Z.
OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25
KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME VFR CIGS AT AROUND
6KFT ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. -BLAES
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/BLAES
AVIATION...BLAES
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