837
FXUS62 KRAH 171722
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
* SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY FOR ANY EARLY
BUDDING VEGETATION ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
1) A HARD FREEZE LIKELY FOR A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 12 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH.
2) LARGELY DRY IN THE EXTENDED, WITH GRADUAL MODERATING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. WE COOL DOWN AGAIN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A HARD FREEZE LIKELY FOR A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 12 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH.
COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE ARKLATEX REGION, IS FORECAST TO BROADEN AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WED MORNING. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DROP TO AROUND
1270M (APPROX 60M BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH). SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD QUICKLY GO CALM OVER A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT.
MODEL PROGS AND POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SKY COVER MAY NOT
BECOME BROKEN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD
OF OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PIEDMONT WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
COOLING. AS SUCH, THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAS LEANED HEAVILY INTO
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE (MAV/MET/ECM) FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH A FINAL RESULT OF WIDESPREAD 20S WITH LOW 20S
EXPECTED IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF THE PIEDMONT. ALTHOUGH THE
GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY BEGUN, ANY EARLY BUDDING
PLANTS/VEGETATION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE IF NOT
PROTECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LARGELY DRY IN THE EXTENDED, WITH GRADUAL MODERATING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. WE COOL DOWN AGAIN NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK, BRINGING RECORD-BREAKING HEAT TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, MOST OF OUR AREA WILL STAY UNDER A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. THAT WILL LARGELY TRANSLATE INTO A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE
WEST, THE FIRST OF WHICH COMES ON WED, BUT THE LOW-LEVELS ARE
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH ON
SAT AS WAA STARTS TO RAMP UP, BUT MUCH OF THE ENSEMBLES ARE DRY.
THE BEST APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A STORM MAY NOT COME
UNTIL SUN OR MON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
COMING IN EITHER LATE SUN OR EARLY NEXT WEEK MON. MANY OF THE
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF AGREEMENT, THOUGH THE EC-
AIFS SOLUTION DOES INDICATE PERHAPS A DECENT SHOT MON INTO TUE
AS AS A POSSIBLE CAD SCENARIO SETS UP. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
APPEARS LOW AT THIS POINT FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL WED IN THE
40S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, THEN GRADUALLY
MODERATE TO NEAR 60 THU AND INTO THE 70S THIS WEEKEND, MAYBE
EVEN 80 ON SUN WITHIN A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP. WE
SHOULD DROP BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AS EARLY AS MON BUT
DEFINITELY BY TUE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN SITES THIS
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY BECOMING CEILINGS AT INT/GSO. GUSTS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO INCREASE AT SOME SITES TODAY, BUT EXPECT THAT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON GUSTS SHOULD APPROACH 20 KT IN MOST LOCATIONS. INSTEAD OF
DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET, HAVE FOLLOWED MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW
GUSTS NOT DROPPING OFF UNTIL LATE EVENING. WHILE DIURNAL CUMULUS
WILL FADE AWAY, HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
THE WIND WILL VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY COMING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTS
COULD INCREASE UP TO 15 KT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/KREN
AVIATION...GREEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page