027
FXUS62 KRAH 181715
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 545 AM WEDNESDAY...
* NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE WITH THE MAIN UPDATE
EARLIER THIS MORNING.
* UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SOMETIME SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. LARGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF BOTH RAIN AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 145 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIKELY LINGER
TONIGHT AND EXTEND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
DESPITE THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH DEPARTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SURFACE
CONDITIONS GO CALM AND THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE VARYING DEGREES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WHICH COMPLICATES THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. OPTED TO TREND THE FORECAST LOWER THAN FREEZING
EVERYWHERE, BUT WHERE CALM CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENT CLEARING
CAN TAKE PLACE, MID 20S COULD CERTAINLY BE ACHIEVABLE (10-30%
CHANCE IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. LARGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF BOTH RAIN AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR.
OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE
TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WILL BE DISCUSSED SHORTLY. BUT PRIOR TO THAT, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
MID- ATLANTIC LATE FRI TO SAT MORNING. VERY FEW ENSEMBLES SHOW
RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE DRY LOW-LEVELS, BUT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES DO INCREASE TO ABOUT 140-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE
OPERATIONAL EURO IS THE WETTEST, MAINLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES SAT
MORNING. MOST PROBABLE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASED CLOUDS WITH
A FEW SPRINKLES.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A WIDE RANGE OF TIMINGS, WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
SHOWING THE FASTEST FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, FROM A CLUSTER
PERSPECTIVE, EVEN THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW LARGE
DIFFERENCES. THIS IS CAUSING CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, INCLUDING MONDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE IS
SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, WHILE THE
GEFS IS SHOWING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 80. THUS, IF THE
FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLER. HOWEVER IF THE FRONT
STALLS TO OUR NORTH AND PASSES THROUGH LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY
AS OTHER ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARMER. SOMETHING WORTH NOTING IS THAT THE FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOLUTION COULD FAVOR A SEVERE RISK SUN EVENING OWING TO
THE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THE OVERALL WIND PROFILE, AND
MODERATE MOISTURE RETURN, AS SEVERAL AI MODELS SUGGEST. THIS IS
CERTAINLY SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR, BUT HAS LOW CONFIDENCE THUS
FAR WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENSEMBLE SPREAD. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
MON NIGHT TO TUE IN A POSSIBLE TRANSIENT CAD REGIME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, THE WIND WILL VEER FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AT INT/GSO/RDU, WHILE FAY/RWI ARE LIKELY
TO RETAIN A NORTHEAST WIND. THE WIND WILL LIKELY BECOME CALM FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY CLEAR AFTER MORNING CLOUDS,
ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BRINGING A HIGH CEILING TO FAY/RWI AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
INT/GSO/RDU.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FAYETTEVILLE, BUT NO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. THE WIND COULD
GUST UP TO 20 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/KREN/LH
AVIATION...GREEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page