507
FXUS62 KRAH 181827
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
* NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
2) A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN SUN EVENING AND MON NIGHT, BUT MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH,
AND CONFIDENCE LOW, WHICH WILL IMPACT BOTH TEMPS AND POPS IN THIS
TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MOVING PAST NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL CHANGE THE WIND DIRECTION TO THE SOUTH IN MOST
LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WITH THE WIND REMAINING LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON, AND
GOING CALM OVERNIGHT, THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION STILL WON'T
CHANGE THE LOCAL AIR MASS AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PERHAPS BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, BUT WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING APPEAR LIKELY ONCE AGAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
REBOUND ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN SUN EVENING AND MON NIGHT, BUT MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS HIGH, AND CONFIDENCE LOW, WHICH WILL IMPACT BOTH TEMPS AND
POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME.
IN THE WAKE OF SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FAR NE CWA FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT (ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SE THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC), WE'LL BE FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH SUN AS THE HOTTEST DAY AS HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
80S AREAWIDE, AND 90 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA, ALL WITH LOW TO NO POPS GIVEN THE WARM AND FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS. THEN, A POLAR LOW SINKING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC BECOMES
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING FROM MANITOBA ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST, PROPELLING A SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND POTENTIALLY
CULMINATING IN A TRANSIENT CAD EVENT AS FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE N. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEANS REGARDING THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE RESULTANT BROAD TROUGH AND THE COLD SURFACE HIGH IN
ITS WAKE. THE OP ECMWF REMAINS FASTER OVERALL THAN THE OP GFS BY 12-
24 HRS, ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. THIS
RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED MODEL SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS SUN NIGHT
(WHEN MOST NOW HAVE THE FRONT STILL TO OUR NW OR N) AND ON TUE (WHEN
MOST HAVE THE FRONT TO OUR S), HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS
QUITE HIGH FOR MON HIGHS, INCLUDING 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE
DIFFERENCES OF 20-30 DEGREES F ON THE AIGEFS-ENS AND NBM AND 30-40
DEGREES F ON THE LREF, LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING BUT ALSO ON THE VARIED AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AMONG THE MODELS. MOST SHOW AN INCREASE IN PW OVER NC AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO 150-225% OF NORMAL, BUT THE HEAVILY
WESTERLY OR WNW COMPONENT TO THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AS WELL AS THE E-
TO-W SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF/FL/BAHAMAS (LIMITING LOW LEVEL
GULF-SOURCE MOISTURE FLUX) WOULD TEND TO FAVOR LIGHTER QPF AND LOWER
COVERAGE OVERALL WITH FROPA. THAT SAID, THOUGH, IF WE'RE STILL IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE FRONT JUST TO OUR NW MON AFTERNOON, SURFACE
HEATING AND DECENT DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS YIELDING A
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WITH A
HAIL THREAT. SOME OF THE AI MODELS HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY MON
(ALBEIT WITH LOW PROBABILITIES), AND THE OP GFS HAS MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES UP TO 7.5-8.0 C/KM WITH A FAVORABLE WET BULB FREEZING LEVEL
JUST UNDER 10KFT, ALTHOUGH THIS RISK COULD BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, BUT HIGHER POPS
MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS PERIOD IN LATER FORECASTS. WITH THE APPARENT
SLOWING TREND, OUR FORECAST TEMPS WILL REFLECT A MILD SCENARIO WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SUN NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S MON, BUT AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, AND THESE READINGS
COULD EASILY BE 10-20 DEGREES HIGHER OR (LESS LIKELY) LOWER THAN
THESE VALUES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, THE WIND WILL VEER FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH AT INT/GSO/RDU, WHILE FAY/RWI ARE LIKELY
TO RETAIN A NORTHEAST WIND. THE WIND WILL LIKELY BECOME CALM FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY CLEAR AFTER MORNING CLOUDS,
ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BRINGING A HIGH CEILING TO FAY/RWI AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT
INT/GSO/RDU.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT FAYETTEVILLE, BUT NO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. THE WIND COULD
GUST UP TO 20 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...GREEN
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