227
FXUS62 KRAH 201757
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
156 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 147 PM FRIDAY...
* UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...
1) THERE IS A LOW-END THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ALSO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF STORMS
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
2) POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TODAY AND ALSO LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF MONDAY'S COLD FRONT.
3) A CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH AND AIRMASS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FROST/LIGHT FREEZING CONDITIONS NEXT TUE-TUE
NIGHT, BUT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD PERIODS OF HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THAT MAY INHIBIT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THERE IS A LOW-END THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND ALSO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT
OF STORMS MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NE US
WILL SETTLE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SOUTHERN VA AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE
NC/SC BORDER OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY, PUTTING US WELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REGARDING THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY FROM THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES, HREF MEMBERS
DEPICT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AS CONVECTION TRACKS ESE IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT, IT WILL RUN INTO LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AS IT APPROACHES
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, ALONG WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
NEVERTHELESS, A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS COULD SURVIVE AND BRIEFLY
IMPACT THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE RISK TODAY IS
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM DECAYING SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF GUSTS.
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AND SETTLES ALONG THE NC/SC
BORDER INTO THE EVENING, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE
SANDHILLS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME MODEST LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL SUB-OPTIMAL IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR
SOUTHWEST WITH MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. THE CAPE IS HIGHEST NEAR
CHARLOTTE AND IN UPSTATE SC. NOT SURPRISINGLY, MOST HREF MEMBERS
SHOW THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
HOWEVER, IF THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP BEING HUNG UP FURTHER NORTH, COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS REACHING OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD STAY SOUTH/WEST OF
OUR AREA, BUT WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED.
LASTLY, THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH ITS PASSAGE, DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH, THERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INSTABILITY WITH PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. AI-MODELS
SUGGEST A NON-ZERO THREAT OF SEVERE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
NC, WHERE DEWPOINTS COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE LOW 60S AND COMBINE
WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND NEAR 40 KT OF DEEP SHEAR. THIS WILL
BE WATCHED CLOSELY BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW DUE TO A LACK
OF POTENTIAL MOISTURE RETURN.
KEY MESSAGE 2... POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TODAY AND ALSO LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF MONDAY'S COLD FRONT.
A SOMEWHAT PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS MAY BE
WARRANTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. TODAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMES
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. AT THE SAME TIME, DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT INTO
THE 30S, ALLOWING FOR RH LEVELS TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN
THE PIEDMONT. THIS COULD FAVOR A POSSIBLE INCREASED FIRE DANGER. WE
WILL CONSULT WITH NCFS TODAY ON FUELS.
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMPS UP THIS WEEKEND SUNDAY AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY, LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL REACH VALUES TYPICAL OF
LATE JUNE. THIS SHOULD PUT OUR HIGHS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION). AT THE SAME TIME, A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN WITH
MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH SOME 15-30 MPH GUSTS, GREATEST
ON MONDAY PRE AND POST-FRONTAL, WILL RISK A FIRE DANGER THREAT. THE
PRIOR SPC OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTED THIS FOR MON AND THE SACC ALSO
INDICATES A POSSIBLE HIGH RISK OVER THE PIEDMONT. ANY STATEMENTS FOR
THIS WILL BE COORDINATED WITH NCFS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH AND AIRMASS OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FROST/LIGHT FREEZING
CONDITIONS NEXT TUE-TUE NIGHT, BUT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD
PERIODS OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT MAY INHIBIT OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE CONUS
NEXT WEEK, AROUND A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH FORECAST TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST - THOUGH NOT TO RECORD-BREAKING
LEVELS OF RECENT DAYS. WITHIN THAT FAST AND PROGRESSIVE REGIME, A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PROGRESSING ACROSS
AND OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MON NIGHT-TUE, WITH FOLLOWING RISING
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL FAVOR THE PROGRESSION OF AN
UNDERLYING CP HIGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON
TUE. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED AIRMASS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF FROST/LIGHT FREEZING CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AND
NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED WNWLY FLOW WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST MAY MAXIMIZE WITH THE
MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES TUE NIGHT-EARLY WED. THAT CLOUDINESS MAY
CONSEQUENTLY INHIBIT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 154 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SSWLY GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS STARTING TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. HOWEVER, DECAYING SHOWERS FROM VA MAY
STREAM ACROSS KRWI LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY INCLUDE A FEW GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS (~20 KTS OR SO). WHILE SOME STIRRING OF THE SFC FLOW IS
LIKELY, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET (45 TO 50 KTS) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH, LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AT KFAY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL NWLY GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY EVENING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 22:
KGSO: 85/1948
KRDU: 89/1907
KFAY: 88/1948
MARCH 23:
KFAY: 86/1948
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 22:
KFAY: 63/1948
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS/KREN
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
CLIMATE...RAH
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