222
FXUS62 KRAH 201846
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
* MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS HAS BEEN
ADDED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 241 PM FRIDAY...
1) THERE IS A LOW-END THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT IN OUR
NORTHEAST. THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM
ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF STORMS MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
2) THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY,
AND A PASSING COLD FRONT CREATES AN "INCREASED FIRE DANGER" WINDOW
FOR THE PIEDMONT REGION.
3) A CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH AND AIRMASS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FROST/LIGHT FREEZING CONDITIONS NEXT TUE-TUE
NIGHT, BUT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD PERIODS OF HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THAT MAY INHIBIT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 241 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THERE IS A LOW-END THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT
IN OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM
ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF STORMS MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED A WEAK SHORT-WAVE MOVING
OVER AND GENERATING SHOWERS OVER THE OH/PA/NY/WV VICINITY. AT THE
SFC, A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO VA TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. DECAYING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE WILL POSSIBLY REACH OUR FAR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS COULD OCCUR (~20 MPH OR
SO), BUT OVERALL EXPECT JUST TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH THESE SHOWERS.
AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OR NC/SC
BORDER TOMORROW, A SOLID THETA-E (AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY)
GRADIENT WILL SET UP IN THIS VICINITY. ALOFT, A WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK
FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
THETA-E GRADIENT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION SOMEWHERE
NEAR CHARLOTTE BEFORE EXPANDING EASTWARD ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER.
THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE CAMS IN CI OVER THIS
GENERAL VICINITY, ALTHOUGH A FEW KEEP THE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH
(E.G. ARW/NSSL). HODOGRAPHS IN THIS VICINITY DO ELONGATE WITH TIME
(BUT REMAIN STRAIGHT), WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 25
TO 35 KTS OF SHEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PEAK UPWARDS OF 7 C/KM AND WITH PWAT EXPECTED TO BE SUB 1 INCH
LIMITING WATER LOADING, ISOLATED LARGE TO SEVERE HAIL MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE INVERTED-V SHAPES, SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER GUST IN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE
SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LOW-END THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND ALSO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT
OF STORMS MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DETERMINISTIC AND AI GUIDANCE HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER, MAINLY FAVORING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NC. THIS DELAY MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
BIT OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. AI MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL SEVERE THREAT OVER EASTERN AREAS
OF CENTRAL NC, WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GET UP TO THE LOW
60S, A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AND DEEP SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS, AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPERATURES,
LOW HUMIDITY, AND A PASSING COLD FRONT CREATES AN "INCREASED FIRE
DANGER" WINDOW FOR THE PIEDMONT REGION.
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS REMAIN HEIGHTENED FOR CENTRAL NC FOLLOWING
MONDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE SUNDAY FEATURES NEAR-RECORD
HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW (DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50-60S), A SHARP AIRMASS CHANGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE
RH VALUES PLUMMET BELOW 35%, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE SPC'S 40% FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITY AND THE
SACC'S HIGH-RISK DESIGNATION FOR THE PIEDMONT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE THREAT AND COORDINATE WITH NCFS AS NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A CONTINENTAL POLAR HIGH AND AIRMASS OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FROST/LIGHT FREEZING
CONDITIONS NEXT TUE-TUE NIGHT, BUT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD
PERIODS OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT MAY INHIBIT OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE CONUS
NEXT WEEK, AROUND A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH FORECAST TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST - THOUGH NOT TO RECORD-BREAKING
LEVELS OF RECENT DAYS. WITHIN THAT FAST AND PROGRESSIVE REGIME, A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PROGRESSING ACROSS
AND OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST MON NIGHT-TUE, WITH FOLLOWING RISING
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL FAVOR THE PROGRESSION OF AN
UNDERLYING CP HIGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON
TUE. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED AIRMASS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF FROST/LIGHT FREEZING CONDITIONS TUE MORNING AND
NIGHT, THE AFOREMENTIONED WNWLY FLOW WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST MAY MAXIMIZE WITH THE
MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES TUE NIGHT-EARLY WED. THAT CLOUDINESS MAY
CONSEQUENTLY INHIBIT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 154 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SSWLY GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS STARTING TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. HOWEVER, DECAYING SHOWERS FROM VA MAY
STREAM ACROSS KRWI LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY INCLUDE A FEW GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS (~20 KTS OR SO). WHILE SOME STIRRING OF THE SFC FLOW IS
LIKELY, A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET (45 TO 50 KTS) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. AS SUCH, LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY AT KFAY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. POST-FRONTAL NWLY GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY EVENING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 22:
KGSO: 85/1948
KRDU: 89/1907
KFAY: 88/1948
MARCH 23:
KFAY: 86/1948
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 22:
KFAY: 63/1948
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHETTI/CA/MWS
AVIATION...LUCHETTI
CLIMATE...RAH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page