208
FXUS62 KRAH 210600
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
* NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
1) THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS
EVENING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF
STORMS MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHEAST BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
2) THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY,
AND A PASSING COLD FRONT FAVORS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK ON
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF HAIL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT OF STORMS MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHEAST
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY DRAPED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION TODAY AND STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY ONCE IT MAKES IT INTO NC
WILL MORE OR LESS BE A WIND SHIFT, WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN THE
AIRMASS AS HIGHS REACH ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP A CONVERGENCE
AND THETA-E AXIS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NC INTO CHARLOTTE AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS AND TN VALLEY
REGION WILL TRACK INTO AL/GA THIS EVENING.
CENTRAL NC WILL LIKELY BE ON THE STABLE SIDE OF THIS THETA-E
BOUNDARY, WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, THE 850-MB WAA WILL HELP GENERATE LIFT ATOP THE
BOUNDARY, FEEDING ON PW'S ABOUT 180-PERCENT OF NORMAL OF AN INCH.
THE LATEST 00Z HREF MEMBERS STILL VARY QUITE A BIT AS TO COVERAGE
AND LOCATION, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN TN INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS AND
CHARLOTTE AREA BEFORE TRACKING ESE INTO THE NC/SC REGION. THE
HRRR/NSSL ARE THE FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS, WITH ACTIVITY PERHAPS
REACHING THE SOUTHERN TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS, WHILE OTHER
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS. IT WOULD APPEAR THE BEST CHANCE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS, BUT ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF
THE MOIST BOUNDARY. THE MAIN TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT 5-6
PM UNTIL 11P-12A. A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND CHARLOTTE REGION. WHILE THE SURFACE IS LARGELY STABLE,
PARCELS ELEVATED TO 850-MB CAN FEED ON 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE GIVEN
FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 C/KM AND 30-35 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MESO-LOW OR MCV MAY FORM
TO ENHANCE THIS LIFT ABOVE THE INVERSION. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS AND
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, HAIL IS A PRIMARY RISK IF A FEW SUPERCELLS CAN
DEVELOP. BUT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN SEVERAL
POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATING INVERTED-V PROFILES FOR EVAPORATIVELY
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS. ALL IN ALL, THIS IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT, GIVEN
THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE BUT SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING
CLOSELY LATER TODAY.
WE CONTINUE TO ALSO WATCH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING ON MONDAY. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND ORIENTATION TO THE FRONT. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FRONT SLIDING THROUGH FROM THE NE, WHILE OTHER
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GEM AND ITS REGIONAL RDPS SHOW A PASSAGE MORE
FROM THE WNW. IF THE GEM WERE TO VERIFY, IT COULD FAVOR THAT NON-
ZERO THREAT OF STORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MON AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING
FACTOR, WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST
DURING PEAK HEATING. AS SUCH, WHILE A FEW AI MODELS STILL SUGGEST A
SEVERE RISK, OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND A PASSING COLD FRONT FAVORS AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK ON MONDAY.
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
LONG GONE SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMPS UP WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE AIRMASS WILL BE
TYPICAL FOR LATE JUNE ON SUN AND PARTIALLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY. HIGHS AT ALL THREE OF OUR CLIMATE SITES WILL LIKELY TIE OR
BREAK THE RECORD ON SUN. COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 15 TO
BRIEFLY 25 MPH AND RH DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COULD FAVOR A LOW-END FIRE RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. THE MORE HEIGHTENED FIRE RISK WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN
IN THE FRONT ORIENTATION, A HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN THE SACC
OUTLOOK FOR THIS TIME, ALONG WITH A 40-PERCENT OR GREATER RISK FROM
SPC. IF THE FLOW IS MORE WNW, THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH WARM
AND DRY TEMPS AND RH IN THE MIDDLE 20S WOULD WARRANT THIS FIRE RISK.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN
OUR HWO.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE WHOLE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND 10KTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED. ALONG WITH THIS, LLWS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A 45-50KT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
RESTRICTIONS WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME, BUT THE BEST
CHANCE WILL BE AT FAY AND POSSIBLY RDU.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL. SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT FAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 22:
KGSO: 85/1948
KRDU: 89/1907
KFAY: 88/1948
MARCH 23:
KFAY: 86/1948
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 22:
KFAY: 63/1948
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN
AVIATION...HELOCK
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