282
FXUS62 KRAH 061032
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
* TEMPERATURES TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
1) WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
2) DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... WIDESPREAD FROST POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S INITIAL COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY MONDAY
NIGHT'S SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE, STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A CONTINUED INFUSION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO CENTRAL NC,
ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NBM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR BOTH
NIGHTS, NOW SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID 30S ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CLOSER TO 40 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE, ALONG
WITH GRADUAL DOWNWARD TRENDS FROM THE NBM AND OTHER ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC COULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME FROST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF US-64. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK, ENDING THE FROST THREAT FOR THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 ... DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.
ONE OTHER EFFECT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE
INCREASED WINDS AND SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER HUMIDITIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC. WHILE NEARLY EVERYONE SAW RAINFALL ON SUNDAY, MANY SPOTS SAW
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND ONLY A FEW SAW UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY COMPLETELY DRY. THE COMBINATION
OF CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL, DRY DEWPOINTS, AND INCREASED WINDS
COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM MID WEEK ONWARD,
PERHAPS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WHEN AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO
AROUND 25-35 PERCENT AREAWIDE. SIMILAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY
PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH RH VALUES
CLOSER TO 50%.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS REMAINS THE LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WHICH IS COULD SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, THOUGH NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP GUSTS (OF 15 TO 20KTS) IN 12 TAF. WHILE
MOST SITES ARE SEEING SUSTAINED N-NW WINDS OF 5-10KT, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS WILL BE AT THE EASTERN SITES.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERS OVER THE PIEDMONT LATER THIS MORNING,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER SLIGHTLY MORE NW TO W. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OF LOW-LEVEL CEILINGS, BUT A MIX
OF MID AND HIGH-CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DL
AVIATION...CA
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