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FXUS62 KRAH 062310
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
* FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR WED AND
THU MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
1) DESPITE COLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING, A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND THE PRESENCE OF A VERY DRY AIRMASS MAY
MITIGATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING, WHEN COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
2) WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY FORECAST, AND THE
PROLONGED INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL AIR AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DESPITE COLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY
MORNING, A NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND THE PRESENCE OF A VERY DRY AIRMASS
MAY MITIGATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE MORE
LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING, WHEN COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
A 1038 MB, ARCTIC HIGH NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE S-CNTL CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NRN PLAINS STATES WILL PROGRESS SEWD AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY 12Z WED, WHEN
MONTHLY MSLP RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN OVER CNTL AND ERN NY AND PA.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROGRESS OFFSHORE BY WED NIGHT,
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE, AND DRY/CONTINENTAL AIR WILL EXTEND SWD
AND SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEK.
NLY TO NELY SURFACE WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TUE NIGHT, AS THE BRUNT OF THE RIDGE AND AIRMASS
BUILD SWD ACROSS CNTL NC. SO DESPITE CAA-DRIVEN TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S, EXCEPT AROUND 40F ACROSS FAR SRN ZONES, THAT WIND, AND ALSO
INCOMING SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 20SF, WILL LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL WED MORNING. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF FROST, TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE VA BORDER, FROM TDF TO HNZ AND IXA, WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
AND MAY PROVE HARMFUL TO UNPROTECTED VEGETATION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS, WITH FULL DECOUPLING POSSIBLE AS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS OVERHEAD WED NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LWR/MID 30S OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SRN/SERN
ZONES, WHERE UPR 30S TO AROUND 40F WILL BE FAVORED. WHEN COMBINED
WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE CP AIRMASS THAT WILL PROBABLY ALLOW
FOR SURFACE DEWPOINT RECOVERY INTO THE 30SF, FROST WILL BECOME
LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 ... WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY FORECAST,
AND THE PROLONGED INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL AIR AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PROLONGED PRESENCE AND INFLUENCE OF THE CP SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL FAVOR BOTH A DRY FORECAST AND MIN RH VALUES
BELOW 45% EVERY DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LOWEST AND MOSTLY IN THE
20S PERCENT TUE-WED. WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEY WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONGEST FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS AND WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 OR SO KTS WED, WHEN THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A SYSTEM OVER THE NE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH-LEVEL
CIRRUS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE WNW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TUE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS IN THE
MORNING COULD BRIEFLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 18 KT, REMAINING STEADY IN
THE 8-10 KT RANGE THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...KREN
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