665
FXUS62 KRAH 070456
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 1255 AM TUESDAY...
* NO MAJOR CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1255 AM TUESDAY...
1) PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS FROST POTENTIAL COULD BE MITIGATED BY WIND TONIGHT
AND CLOUDS TOMORROW NIGHT.
2) WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY FORECAST, AND THE
PROLONGED INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL AIR AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1255 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... CAA OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR CHILLY TEMPS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE LOW-MID 30S ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-85 AND ESP ALONG THE VA BORDER, WITH LOWS 35-40 ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ORDINARILY THESE TEMPS WOULD SUFFICE FOR PATCHY
FROST, WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE ARE EXPECTING NE WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT ALONG WITH
DWPTS FALLING THROUGH THE 20S, WHICH IN THIS CASE MAY ACTUALLY LIMIT
THE FROST POTENTIAL. THE LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FROST TONIGHT WILL BE THOSE MENTIONED ABOVE WITH LOW-MID 30S (ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-85 AND NEAR THE VA BORDER). WILL CLOSELY MONITOR AND
THE DAY SHIFT CAN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY SHOULD THE TRENDS SUPPORT
THAT.
COLD READINGS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS NEAR TO
PERHAPS A DEGREE COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THIS TIME
WE'LL HAVE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD YET AGAIN LIMIT FROST
POTENTIAL. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT IF THESE CLOUDS DON'T
MATERIALIZE, OR IF THERE ARE AMPLE BREAKS IN THEM, WE COULD SEE
PATCHES OF FROST SET UP THURSDAY MORNING, ESP IN THE COLDER
LOCATIONS NORTH NEAR THE VA BORDER AND WEST OF THE TRIANGLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 ... WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM A DRY FORECAST,
AND THE PROLONGED INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL AIR AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PROLONGED PRESENCE AND INFLUENCE OF THE CP SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL FAVOR BOTH A DRY FORECAST AND MIN RH VALUES
BELOW 45% EVERY DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LOWEST AND MOSTLY IN THE
20S PERCENT TUE-WED. WHILE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEY WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONGEST FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS AND WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 OR SO KTS WED, WHEN THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A SYSTEM OVER THE NE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH-LEVEL
CIRRUS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE WNW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TUE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS IN THE
MORNING COULD BRIEFLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 18 KT, REMAINING STEADY IN
THE 8-10 KT RANGE THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/MWS AVIATION...KREN
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